Estudiantes La Plata
vs
Gimnasia Mendoza
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Gimnasia Mendoza
The model makes it 42% Estudiantes La Plata, 28% draw, 30% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Estudiantes La Plata 1.79, Gimnasia Mendoza 1.32.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Estudiantes La Plata vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Estudiantes La Plata wins, grey are draws, red are Gimnasia Mendoza wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estudiantes La Plata at 42% here. Across 2804 settled matches, 1295 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Estudiantes La Plata
- W2-1Platense12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield6 September 2026
- D0-0Newell's Old Boys31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sarmiento Junin23 August 2026
- W4-0Gimnasia La Plata15 August 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Defensa Y Justicia11 September 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Independiente30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Estudiantes La Plata | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Estudiantes La Plata and Gimnasia Mendoza
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica12 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Estudiantes La Plata carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.63 for Gimnasia Mendoza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Estudiantes La Plata and 1.32 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes La Plata rate 0.90 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.78 and 1.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gimnasia Mendoza, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Estudiantes La Plata a 0.1% chance of the title and Gimnasia Mendoza 3.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1308 correct results out of 2804 settled predictions (47%), with 267 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estudiantes La Plata the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata against 1.32 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Estudiantes La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.22 for Gimnasia Mendoza.