Nashville SC
vs
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 19% Nashville SC, 20% draw, 61% Inter Miami — fair odds of 5.26, 5.00 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Nashville SC 1.26, Inter Miami 2.36.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Nashville SC
No league goals recorded yet.
Inter Miami
- L. Messi13 goals7 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nashville SC carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.81 for Inter Miami. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Nashville SC W-W-W-L-D; Inter Miami W-W-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Nashville SC and 2.36 for Inter Miami. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nashville SC rate 0.46 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Miami rate 1.23 and 1.45.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 0-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Nashville SC against 2.36 for Inter Miami. Nashville SC's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.45 for Inter Miami.