Celta Vigo
vs
Athletic Club
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 37% Celta Vigo, 25% draw, 38% Athletic Club — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.56, Athletic Club 1.57.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club
- 17 May 2026Athletic Club 1–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 14 December 2025Celta Vigo 2–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 19 January 2025Celta Vigo 1–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 22 September 2024Athletic Club 3–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 15 May 2024Celta Vigo 2–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 10 November 2023Athletic Club 4–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
The two sides
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.92 for Athletic Club. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.57 for Athletic Club. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 1.03 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Athletic Club rate 0.89 and 0.80.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.57 for Athletic Club. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.8 for Athletic Club.