FC Augsburg
vs
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 26% FC Augsburg, 22% draw, 52% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 3.85, 4.55 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.38, FC Schalke 04 2.01.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04
- 29 October 2024FC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal
- 18 March 2023FC Augsburg 1–1 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 2 October 2022FC Schalke 04 2–3 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 17 July 2022FC Augsburg 1–1 FC Schalke 04Friendlies Clubs
- 11 April 2021FC Schalke 04 1–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 13 December 2020FC Augsburg 2–2 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
The two sides
FC Augsburg carry a model rating of 6.81 against 7.15 for FC Schalke 04. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for FC Augsburg and 2.01 for FC Schalke 04. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Augsburg rate 1.07 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Schalke 04 rate 1.23 and 0.68.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 0-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Schalke 04 the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Augsburg against 2.01 for FC Schalke 04. FC Augsburg's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.68 for FC Schalke 04.