SC Freiburg
vs
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 54% SC Freiburg, 24% draw, 22% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.81, Werder Bremen 1.06.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
- 7 February 2026SC Freiburg 1–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 20 September 2025Werder Bremen 0–3 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 21 February 2025SC Freiburg 5–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 5 October 2024Werder Bremen 0–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 27 January 2024Werder Bremen 3–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 26 August 2023SC Freiburg 1–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SC Freiburg carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.65 for Werder Bremen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.06 for Werder Bremen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Freiburg rate 0.82 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Werder Bremen rate 0.79 and 1.17.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 1.06 for Werder Bremen. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.17 for Werder Bremen.