Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Charlotte 0-0 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Charlotte, 30% draw, 33% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlotte at 37% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 35W. ClearyD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 3T. ReamD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 28D. DianiM
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 16P. BielM
- 10A. Saint-MaximinM
- 9I. ToklomatiF
- 21T. MillerG
- 14N. ByrneD
- 4A. PrivettD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 37R. AlokoF
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 25T. SmallsF
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34A. ReschD
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 6ArturM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 3Antonio CarlosD
- 21F. NegriD
- 18D. SamassekouM
- 14D. HolmesM
- 22M. AranaM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 24I. AliyuF
Form going into Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo
Charlotte
- W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026
- W3-1DC United22 August 2026
- D3-3away to Toronto FC19 August 2026
- W3-1Columbus Crew15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire2 August 2026
Houston Dynamo
- D0-0San Jose Earthquakes30 August 2026
- L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Vancouver Whitecaps20 August 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles Galaxy16 August 2026
- W2-0away to New England Revolution8 August 2026
What these results say
- Charlotte scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
- Houston Dynamo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Houston Dynamo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Charlotte | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Charlotte and Houston Dynamo
Charlotte
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme14 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.