20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result

Providence Park, Portland
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Portland Timbers 3-1 San Diego.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Portland Timbers, 23% draw, 18% San Diego — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portland Timbers at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portland Timbers99%Draw1%San Diego0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ariel Lassiter
17'
⚽K. Veldeassist: C. Bassett
29'
45'
⚽Gabriel Piraniassist: L. Morgan
⚽A. Lassiterassist: J. Fory
51'
58'
🔁O. Valakariout: A. Alvarado Jr
59'
🔁A. Mightenout: E. Achouri
🔁B. Byeout: E. Miller
62'
⚽D. Da Costaassist: K. Velde
68'
🔁C. Bassettout: J. Ortiz
74'
🔁K. Veldeout: Antony
74'
74'
🔁K. Sargeantout: L. Bombino
74'
🔁D. Thorhallssonout: O. Verhoeven
74'
🔁M. Ingvartsenout: A. Pellegrino
🔁D. Da Costaout: D. Chara
83'
🔁A. Lassiterout: V. Janssen
83'
Kevin Kelsy
90+6'
90+1'
Oscar Verhoeven

Match stats — Portland Timbers vs San Diego

30%Possession70%
11Shots21
5On target6
0Corners7
1.59xG1.41

Goals against chances

Portland Timbers3 from 1.59 xGmore than the chances were worth
San Diego1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portland Timbers 4-2-3-1
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 5B. ByeD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 27J. ForyD
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 30J. CaicedoM
  • 7A. LassiterM
  • 10D. Da CostaM
  • 99K. VeldeM
  • 19K. KelsyF
Substitutes
  • 25T. MuseG
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 23I. SmithD
  • 21D. CharaM
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 14V. JanssenF
  • 88G. GuerraF
  • 22O. FernandezF
  • 11AntonyF
Coach: Jack Cassidy
San Diego 4-3-3
  • 1dos Santos CJG
  • 3D. ThorhallssonD
  • 26M. DuahD
  • 32I. MurphyD
  • 5K. Sargeant
  • 8O. ValakariM
  • 6J. TverskovM
  • 12Gabriel PiraniM
  • 77A. MightenF
  • 7M. IngvartsenF
  • 9L. MorganF
Substitutes
  • 18D. FerreeG
  • 27L. BombinoD
  • 97C. McVeyD
  • 33O. VerhoevenD
  • 20A. GodoyM
  • 70A. Alvarado JrF
  • 19D. VazquezM
  • 90A. PellegrinoF
  • 99E. AchouriM
Coach: Mikey Varas

Form going into Portland Timbers vs San Diego

Portland Timbers

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Chicago Fire16 August 2026
  • W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
  • W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
  • D2-2FC Dallas23 July 2026
  • W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026

San Diego

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
  • W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Portland Timbers had three goals or more.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for San Diego had two goals or fewer.
  • San Diego scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Portland Timbers34137146261+146
13San Diego34911145763-638

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs San Diego

  • 26 April 2026San Diego 1–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 10 November 2025San Diego 4–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 2 November 2025Portland Timbers 2–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
  • 27 October 2025San Diego 2–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 19 October 2025Portland Timbers 0–4 San DiegoMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Portland Timbers beat San Diego 3–1. The model had made a win for Portland Timbers its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: K. Velde 29' for Portland Timbers, Gabriel Pirani 45' for San Diego, A. Lassiter 51' for Portland Timbers, D. Da Costa 68' for Portland Timbers. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.41.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.