Portland Timbers
vs
San Diego
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 58% Portland Timbers, 23% draw, 19% San Diego — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.90, San Diego 1.01.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Portland Timbers
- W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
- D2-2FC Dallas23 July 2026
- W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026
- L1-3San Jose Earthquakes24 May 2026
San Diego
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
- L2-4Vancouver Whitecaps24 May 2026
- D3-3FC Cincinnati17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 24 |
| 13 | San Diego | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Portland Timbers
No league goals recorded yet.
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Portland Timbers carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.5 for San Diego. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Portland Timbers L-W-D-W-W; San Diego D-L-L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.01 for San Diego. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portland Timbers rate 0.75 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Diego rate 0.67 and 1.34.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portland Timbers a 0.1% chance of the title and San Diego 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for Portland Timbers against 1.01 for San Diego. Portland Timbers's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.34 for San Diego.