Bristol City vs Watford Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bristol City 1-0 Watford.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bristol City, 29% draw, 30% Watford — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bristol City at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol City vs Watford
Line-ups
- 1S. TickleG
- 19G. TannerD
- 38N. EileD
- 5R. AtkinsonD
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 8J. WilliamsM
- 4A. RandellM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 12J. KnightM
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 23D. BallardF
- 45E. AdebayoF
- 40B. CollinsG
- 2L. EissatD
- 14T. HorvatM
- 3C. PringD
- 9L. TolajF
- 10S. TwineM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 27G. YahM
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 4K. KebenD
- 6M. PollockD
- 29Branimir MlačićD
- 11R. VataM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 39E. KayembeM
- 21Amin NabizadaM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 45S. MavididiF
- 7O. MaammaF
- 43J. GrievesF
- 10M. BoaduF
- 24S. WalkerG
- 26D. BachmannG
- 19N. ChikovaniF
- 53James Andrew ClarridgeD
- 56Albert EamesD
Form going into Bristol City vs Watford
Bristol City
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Lincoln15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Burnley5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026
- W2-1Portsmouth29 August 2026
Watford
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
- L0-1away to West Brom5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026
- D1-1West Ham29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bristol City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bristol City had three goals or more.
- Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Watford
- 27 February 2026Bristol City 1–2 WatfordChampionship
- 10 January 2026Bristol City 5–1 WatfordFA Cup
- 7 November 2025Watford 1–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 5 April 2025Bristol City 2–1 WatfordChampionship
- 26 November 2024Watford 1–0 Bristol CityChampionship
The result against the call
Bristol City beat Watford 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bristol City at 41%. The goal: Dominic Ballard 31' for Bristol City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.