Rapid Vienna
vs
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 35% Rapid Vienna, 24% draw, 41% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rapid Vienna 1.54, Sturm Graz 1.68.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rapid Vienna
- W2-1away to Ried9 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach2 August 2026
Sturm Graz
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rapid Vienna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Rapid Vienna
- Moulaye Haïdara1 goals
Sturm Graz
- N. Weiper2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rapid Vienna carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.57 for Sturm Graz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rapid Vienna W-W; Sturm Graz D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.68 for Sturm Graz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rapid Vienna rate 0.59 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sturm Graz rate 0.79 and 1.38.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Rapid Vienna against 1.68 for Sturm Graz. Rapid Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.38 for Sturm Graz.