Red Bull Salzburg
vs
Austria Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 77% Red Bull Salzburg, 14% draw, 9% Austria Vienna — fair odds of 1.30, 7.14 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 2.81, Austria Vienna 0.88.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Red Bull Salzburg
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026
- W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026
Austria Vienna
- L0-2Lask Linz9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Wolfsberger AC2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Red Bull Salzburg
- Y. Vertessen1 goals
- K. Konaté1 goals
Austria Vienna
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Red Bull Salzburg carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.17 for Austria Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Red Bull Salzburg W-D; Austria Vienna L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.81 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.88 for Austria Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.90 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Vienna rate 0.41 and 1.65.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.81 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 0.88 for Austria Vienna. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.65 for Austria Vienna.