Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Moscow 1-1 FC Orenburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Spartak Moscow, 28% draw, 19% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Moscow at 53% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg
Line-ups
- 98A. MaksimenkoG
- 83G. FernandesD
- 3C. WoohD
- 4A. DjikuD
- 47R. ZobninD
- 18N. UmyarovM
- 7P. SolariM
- 25D. PrutsevM
- 19M. DakuM
- 10MarquinhosM
- 9M. UgaldeF
- 56A. DovbnyaG
- 1I. PomazunG
- 82D. KhlusevichD
- 33V. ParadaD
- 97D. DenisovD
- 17V. SausM
- 40I. SorokinM
- 27I. DmitrievM
- 24N. MassalygaM
- 1B. OvsyannikovG
- 24M. SivisD
- 6J. PalaciosD
- 5A. TataevD
- 26E. TsenovD
- 3D. VedernikovD
- 8D. PueblaM
- 78R. KulM
- 57E. BolotovM
- 20D. RybchinskiyM
- 30G. GuzinaF
- 95A. KhodanovichG
- 4D. KhotulevD
- 38A. KasimovD
- 2S. PoroykovD
- 65I. IvashchenkoM
- 11E. NazarenkoM
- 80M. PykhcheevM
- 63O. MinatulaevM
- 19Alexandre JesusF
Form going into Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
- W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
FC Orenburg
- D0-0away to Fakel22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg
- 5 August 2026Spartak Moscow 5–1 FC OrenburgCup
- 22 March 2026FC Orenburg 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 25 October 2025Spartak Moscow 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 2 March 2025Spartak Moscow 2–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 21 July 2024FC Orenburg 2–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 25 May 2024Orenburg 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
- M. Daku3 goals1 assist
- M. Ugalde3 goals
FC Orenburg
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.