TSV Hartberg
vs
Ried
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 38% TSV Hartberg, 26% draw, 36% Ried — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: TSV Hartberg 1.43, Ried 1.40.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
TSV Hartberg
- L0-2Sturm Graz8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg1 August 2026
Ried
- L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026
- L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austria Lustenau2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | TSV Hartberg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
TSV Hartberg
No league goals recorded yet.
Ried
- S. Schwab1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
TSV Hartberg carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.29 for Ried. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): TSV Hartberg L-L; Ried D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.40 for Ried. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
TSV Hartberg rate 0.45 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ried rate 0.55 and 1.68.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ried, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives TSV Hartberg the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for TSV Hartberg against 1.4 for Ried. TSV Hartberg's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.68 for Ried.