Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Korona Kielce 1-1 Wisla Krakow.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Korona Kielce, 30% draw, 34% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Korona Kielce at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1X. DziekonskiG
- 71W. DlugoszD
- 23S. RubezicD
- 2A. MosorD
- 21K. CiszekD
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 35K. JakubczykM
- 32O. LingrM
- 8M. RemacleM
- 22M. FassbenderM
- 14M. StepinskiF
- 87R. MamlaG
- 24B. SmolarczykD
- 44K. SotiriouD
- 67N. Barczak
- 10NonoM
- 11K. MatuszewskiD
- 37H. ZwoznyD
- 9S. DavidovicM
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 1M. LubikG
- 34R. GigerD
- 6A. UrygaD
- 29D. GrujcicD
- 52J. KrzyzanowskiD
- 27E. YouanM
- 12J. IgbekemeM
- 7J. ErtlthalerM
- 41K. DudaM
- 17M. BozicM
- 11J. SanchezF
- 93B. NeugebauerG
- 97W. BiedrzyckiD
- 4R. MikulecD
- 13M. MaisonneuveD
- 50M. KutwaD
- 8M. CarboM
- 23V. A. Meseguer CavasM
- 51M. KuziemkaM
- 9A. RodadoF
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow
Korona Kielce
- W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
Wisla Krakow
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Pogon Szczecin23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 4 | Wisla Krakow | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow
- 5 September 2026Korona Kielce 1–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 11 July 2020Wisla Krakow 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 23 February 2020Wisla Krakow 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 14 September 2019Korona Kielce 1–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 10 May 2019Wisla Krakow 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 9 March 2019Korona Kielce 2–6 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Wisla Krakow
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński6 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Wisla Krakow
- Ángel Rodado4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.