Piast Gliwice
vs
GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 54% Piast Gliwice, 24% draw, 22% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.85, GKS Katowice 1.12.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Piast Gliwice
- L3-4Wieczysta Kraków15 August 2026
- L0-3away to Lech Poznan9 August 2026
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
GKS Katowice
- L0-1away to Motor Lublin16 August 2026
- W3-1Radomiak Radom2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice
- 1 July 2026GKS Katowice 0–1 Piast GliwiceFriendlies Clubs
- 10 May 2026Piast Gliwice 0–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 8 November 2025GKS Katowice 1–3 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 16 February 2025GKS Katowice 0–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 12 August 2024Piast Gliwice 2–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Piast Gliwice carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.47 for GKS Katowice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Piast Gliwice L-W-L-L; GKS Katowice L-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.12 for GKS Katowice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Piast Gliwice rate 0.73 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GKS Katowice rate 0.62 and 1.34.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour GKS Katowice, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Piast Gliwice the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Piast Gliwice against 1.12 for GKS Katowice. Piast Gliwice's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.34 for GKS Katowice.