Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Piast Gliwice 3-0 GKS Katowice.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Piast Gliwice, 28% draw, 31% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 41% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 75D. GrilG
- 99E. TwumasiD
- 5JuandeD
- 4J. CzerwinskiD
- 36J. LewickiD
- 90I. LimaM
- 27J. LabojkoM
- 17Q. BoisgardM
- 80H. VallejoM
- 19S. NtamackF
- 11L. SancaF
- 12M. Mendes-DudzinskiG
- 47J. GrelichG
- 28F. BorowskiD
- 3E. FikajD
- 15L. PitanD
- 77S. MuchaM
- 31O. LesniakM
- 18O. MaziarzM
- 10A. KatsantonisF
- 87G. KobylakG
- 6L. KlemenzD
- 4A. JedrychD
- 55P. RestaD
- 97E. JirkaM
- 77M. KowalczykM
- 68B. WolskiM
- 7M. WdowiakM
- 15E. MarkovicF
- 17I. ShkurinF
- 27B. NowakF
- 1M. KikolskiG
- 30A. CzerwinskiD
- 14M. Olsen
- 10M. WedrychowskiM
- 31S. BartlewiczM
- 26D. RasakM
- 22S. MilewskiM
- 23M. WasielewskiD
- 19K. LukasiakM
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice
Piast Gliwice
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa22 August 2026
GKS Katowice
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
- W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice
- 4 September 2026Piast Gliwice 3–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 1 July 2026GKS Katowice 0–1 Piast GliwiceFriendlies Clubs
- 10 May 2026Piast Gliwice 0–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 8 November 2025GKS Katowice 1–3 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 16 February 2025GKS Katowice 0–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 12 August 2024Piast Gliwice 2–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice
Piast Gliwice
- Leandro Sanca4 goals1 assist
- Hugo Vallejo3 goals
GKS Katowice
- I. Shkurin6 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.