Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Motor Lublin 2-3 Legia Warszawa.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Motor Lublin, 29% draw, 35% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motor Lublin at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33G. TratnikG
- 17K. LukoszekD
- 18B. BereszynskiD
- 4T. PlavoticD
- 24F. LubereckiD
- 30M. NdiayeM
- 6M. LegowskiM
- 2P. MeyerM
- 7I. RodriguesM
- 11Fabio RonaldoM
- 10K. CzubakF
- 71M. PopaG
- 29T. SantosD
- 5A. AkatovD
- 39M. BartosD
- 27Y. BourhaneM
- 8KikisM
- 19K. SzymanekM
- 70M. AikoM
- 9Rony LopesF
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiatkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 24Z. ArsenicD
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 53W. UrbanskiM
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 19R. VinagreM
- 23M. SevcikF
- 17M. SzczepaniakF
- 7J. KuchtaF
- 1I. BrkicG
- 5R. DezielM
- 4D. SzymanskiM
- 13A. RecaD
- 6H. ArreiolM
- 99S. KovacikF
- 20J. ZewlakowF
- 79L. ZjawinskiF
- 9R. AdamskiF
Form going into Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa
Motor Lublin
- L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce22 August 2026
Legia Warszawa
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Piast Gliwice22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa
- 5 September 2026Motor Lublin 2–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 1 September 2026Motor Lublin 3–0 Legia WarszawaCup
- 23 May 2026Legia Warszawa 4–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 1 December 2025Motor Lublin 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 10 March 2025Motor Lublin 3–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 1 September 2024Legia Warszawa 5–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa
Motor Lublin
- K. Czubak5 goals
Legia Warszawa
- R. Augustyniak4 goals2 assists
- R. Adamski3 goals
- Ł. Zjawiński3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.