Motor Lublin
vs
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 33% Motor Lublin, 25% draw, 42% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.44, Legia Warszawa 1.66.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Motor Lublin
- W1-0GKS Katowice16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Pogon Szczecin8 August 2026
- L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026
Legia Warszawa
- W5-0Radomiak Radom14 August 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce8 August 2026
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa
- 23 May 2026Legia Warszawa 4–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 1 December 2025Motor Lublin 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 10 March 2025Motor Lublin 3–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 1 September 2024Legia Warszawa 5–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 10 December 2022Legia Warszawa 4–0 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers
Motor Lublin
- K. Czubak2 goals
Legia Warszawa
- Ł. Zjawiński2 goals
- B. Kapustka2 goals
- R. Adamski2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Motor Lublin carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.8 for Legia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Motor Lublin D-L-L-W; Legia Warszawa W-W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.66 for Legia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motor Lublin rate 0.82 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Legia Warszawa rate 0.83 and 0.93.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.66 for Legia Warszawa. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.93 for Legia Warszawa.