Strasbourg
vs
Lens
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 13% Strasbourg, 14% draw, 73% Lens — fair odds of 7.69, 7.14 and 1.37. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.33, Lens 3.12.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Strasbourg vs Lens
- 27 February 2026Strasbourg 1–1 LensLigue 1
- 22 November 2025Lens 1–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 16 February 2025Lens 0–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 6 October 2024Strasbourg 2–2 LensLigue 1
- 10 February 2024Lens 3–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 29 September 2023Strasbourg 0–1 LensLigue 1
A clear gap in the ratings
Strasbourg carry a model rating of 6.59 against 7.15 for Lens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Strasbourg and 3.12 for Lens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Strasbourg rate 0.89 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lens rate 1.44 and 0.79.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 1-4 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lens the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Strasbourg against 3.12 for Lens. Strasbourg's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.44/0.79 for Lens.