Liverpool
vs
Nottingham Forest
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 56% Liverpool, 21% draw, 23% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Liverpool 2.14, Nottingham Forest 1.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
- 22 February 2026Nottingham Forest 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 22 November 2025Liverpool 0–3 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 14 January 2025Nottingham Forest 1–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 14 September 2024Liverpool 0–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 2 March 2024Nottingham Forest 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 29 October 2023Liverpool 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Liverpool carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.87 for Nottingham Forest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Liverpool and 1.32 for Nottingham Forest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Liverpool rate 1.06 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nottingham Forest rate 1.11 and 1.07.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Liverpool against 1.32 for Nottingham Forest. Liverpool's attack/defence rating is 1.06/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.07 for Nottingham Forest.