Avellino vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Avellino 4-1 Sampdoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Avellino, 30% draw, 26% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Avellino at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Avellino vs Sampdoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50T. MartinelliG
- 4A. IzzoD
- 23M. VenturiD
- 56P. EnriciD
- 2F. MissoriM
- 20M. PalumboM
- 6L. PalmieroM
- 39M. BesaggioM
- 27B. MoruzziM
- 10R. RussoF
- 9W. CheddiraF
- 30E. AdamoM
- 18Thomas BerenbruchM
- 14T. BiasciF
- 5A. Di BitontoD
- 77S. Di PaoloF
- 16G. FaticantiM
- 99A. FavilliF
- 1A. IannarilliG
- 7L. PandolfiF
- 1P. VindahlG
- 29A. Di PardoD
- 3S. GartenmannD
- 15F. Delli CarriD
- 7M. CicconiD
- 6L. HendersonM
- 45A. MakoumbouM
- 16Y. VerschaerenM
- 14Yann KaramohM
- 10L. InsigneM
- 9T. LauritsenF
- 99G. TutinoF
- 11T. BegićF
- 42Leonardo CosiF
- 23F. DepaoliD
- 25A. FerrariD
- 96S. MassoloG
- 43K. MbabuD
- 12Andrey KrastevG
- 13L. RavanelliD
Form going into Avellino vs Sampdoria
Avellino
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Ascoli19 September 2026
- D1-1Palermo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
- W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
- L1-2Arezzo22 August 2026
Sampdoria
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Catanzaro19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mantova13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Palermo7 September 2026
- L1-2Juve Stabia29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena23 August 2026
What these results say
- Avellino scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Avellino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Avellino vs Sampdoria
- 22 March 2026Sampdoria 2–1 AvellinoSerie B
- 10 January 2026Avellino 2–1 SampdoriaSerie B
Leading scorers: Avellino and Sampdoria
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo52
- M. Besaggio30
Sampdoria
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Avellino beat Sampdoria 4–1. The model had made a win for Avellino its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Walid Cheddira 12' for Avellino, Lorenzo Insigne 18' for Sampdoria, Martin Palumbo 20' for Avellino, Raffaele Russo 24' for Avellino, Michele Besaggio 29' for Avellino. On expected goals it finished 2.35–0.58.
How the call on Avellino v Sampdoria has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 41% / 31% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 30% / 26%: the biggest move is Avellino's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Avellino win44%▲ +3
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Sampdoria win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.