Şamaxı FK
vs
Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Şamaxı FK 1–2 Neftchi Baku
The model makes it 27% Şamaxı FK, 26% draw, 47% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Şamaxı FK 1.25, Neftchi Baku 1.80.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Neftchi Baku are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Şamaxı FK are 5th on 13 points from 8 games; Neftchi Baku are 2nd on 17 points from 8 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Şamaxı FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Safa Baku.
- Neftchi Baku are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-3 draw away to Qarabag.
- Last 6 meetings: Neftchi Baku 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Neftchi Baku 3–0 Şamaxı FK.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Neftchi Baku at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku
Şamaxı FK
- W3-2Safa Baku16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
- W2-1Araz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Kapaz4 September 2026
Neftchi Baku
- D3-3away to Qarabag17 October 2026
- D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026
- W3-0away to Qabala18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Imisli FK11 September 2026
- W4-1Safa Baku5 September 2026
What these results say
- Şamaxı FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Neftchi Baku had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Şamaxı FK | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Şamaxı FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
Neftchi Baku
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 11% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku
- 10 May 2026Neftchi Baku 3–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 28 February 2026Şamaxı FK 2–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 16 August 2025Neftchi Baku 1–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 7 April 2025Şamaxı FK 0–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 31 January 2025Neftchi Baku 1–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 8 November 2024Neftchi Baku 2–2 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
The two sides
Şamaxı FK carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.69 for Neftchi Baku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Şamaxı FK and 1.80 for Neftchi Baku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Şamaxı FK rate 0.58 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Neftchi Baku rate 0.95 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Şamaxı FK a 0% chance of the title and Neftchi Baku 10.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Neftchi Baku the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Şamaxı FK against 1.80 for Neftchi Baku. Şamaxı FK's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.32 for Neftchi Baku.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Şamaxı FK at home · Neftchi Baku away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Şamaxı FK 8, Neftchi Baku 8.
Şamaxı FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Neftchi Baku have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Şamaxı FK
- at Sabah FA7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 9%
- vs Turan21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- vs Qabala28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 56%
- vs Kapaz5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 50%
Neftchi Baku
- vs Kapaz7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 71%
- at Araz21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- vs Zira28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- at Safa Baku5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.