Kapaz
vs
Imisli FK
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Kapaz 1–0 Imisli FK
The model makes it 44% Kapaz, 31% draw, 25% Imisli FK — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Kapaz 1.30, Imisli FK 0.85.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kapaz are 7th on 10 points from 6 games; Imisli FK are 10th on 4 points from 7 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Kapaz are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Araz.
- Imisli FK are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Qarabag.
- Last 6 meetings: Imisli FK 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Kapaz 0–1 Imisli FK.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kapaz vs Imisli FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kapaz at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kapaz vs Imisli FK
Kapaz
- W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026
- D1-1Sumqayıt20 September 2026
- W1-0Qabala12 September 2026
- L1-4Şamaxı FK4 September 2026
- W1-0Turan30 August 2026
Imisli FK
- L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sabah FA19 September 2026
- L2-3Neftchi Baku11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Qabala4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Safa Baku29 August 2026
What these results say
- Kapaz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kapaz had two goals or fewer.
- Imisli FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kapaz | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Imisli FK | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kapaz
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
Imisli FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kapaz vs Imisli FK
- 19 April 2026Kapaz 0–1 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 9 February 2026Imisli FK 0–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 24 October 2025Kapaz 0–3 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 4 December 2024Kapaz 1–0 Imisli FKCup
- 22 March 2015Imisli FK 3–0 KapazBirinci Dasta
- 9 October 2014Kapaz 3–0 Imisli FKBirinci Dasta
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kapaz carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.15 for Imisli FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Kapaz and 0.85 for Imisli FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kapaz rate 0.46 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Imisli FK rate 0.42 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kapaz the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kapaz against 0.85 for Imisli FK. Kapaz's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.74 for Imisli FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kapaz at home · Imisli FK away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Kapaz 6, Imisli FK 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kapaz
- at Neftchi Baku7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 11%
- vs Qarabag21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 19%
- at Turan28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 18%
Imisli FK
- vs Sumqayıt7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 34%
- vs Zira21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 29%
- vs Safa Baku28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.