Torino
vs
Udinese
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Torino 1–2 Udinese
The model makes it 34% Torino, 29% draw, 37% Udinese — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Torino 1.35, Udinese 1.45.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Torino and Udinese are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Torino are 14th on 4 points from 5 games; Udinese are 13th on 4 points from 5 games — Serie A.
- Torino have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bologna.
- Udinese are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cagliari.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Udinese 2–0 Torino.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Torino vs Udinese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Udinese at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Torino vs Udinese
Torino
- D1-1away to Bologna19 September 2026
- L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
- L1-2AC Milan23 August 2026
Udinese
- L0-1Cagliari19 September 2026
- L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
- D1-1Como22 August 2026
What these results say
- Torino conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Udinese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Udinese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Udinese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Torino vs Udinese
- 2 May 2026Udinese 2–0 TorinoSerie A
- 7 January 2026Torino 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 23 April 2025Torino 2–0 UdineseSerie A
- 29 December 2024Udinese 2–2 TorinoSerie A
- 16 March 2024Udinese 0–2 TorinoSerie A
- 23 December 2023Torino 1–1 UdineseSerie A
Leading scorers: Torino and Udinese
Torino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Udinese
- H. Kamara2 goals1 assist
- J. Ekkelenkamp2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Torino carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.86 for Udinese. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Torino and 1.45 for Udinese. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torino rate 0.95 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Udinese rate 1.05 and 1.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Udinese the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Torino against 1.45 for Udinese. Torino's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.03 for Udinese.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Torino at home · Udinese away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Torino 5, Udinese 5.
Torino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Udinese have let in 2 there.
Udinese score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Torino have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Torino
- at Parma19 Oct · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Monza23 Oct · Serie Awin 40%
- vs Como27 Oct · Serie Awin 25%
- at Frosinone1 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Lecce7 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
Udinese
- vs Lecce18 Oct · Serie Awin 44%
- vs AC Milan25 Oct · Serie Awin 28%
- at Parma28 Oct · Serie Awin 38%
- vs AS Roma31 Oct · Serie Awin 21%
- at Venezia6 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.