18 July 2026

Pumas UNAM vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result

Full time0 – 3

Final score: Pumas UNAM 0-3 CF Pachuca.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Pumas UNAM, 32% draw, 41% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 3.70, 3.13 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CF Pachuca at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽E. Montiel
32'
⚽S. Rondonassist: O. Idrissi
•Álvaro Angulo
45'
🔁S. Trigosout: A. Medina
46'
🔁S. Garciaout: V. Arteaga
46'
Pedro Vite
55'
🔁S. Cordovaout: G. Martinez
69'
72'
🔁Kenedyout: A. Dominguez
72'
🔁R. Pizarroout: N. Vallejo
80'
⚽S. Rondonassist: E. Montiel
81'
•Salomón Rondón
🔁A. Anguloout: C. Calderon
81'
85'
🔁A. Mozoout: C. Sanchez
85'
🔁E. Montielout: A. Bautista
90+2'
🔁F. Venegasout: M. Isais

Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs CF Pachuca

61%Possession39%
9Shots15
2On target6
9Corners4
0.29xG1.15

Goals against chances

Pumas UNAM0 from 0.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
CF Pachuca3 from 1.15 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pumas UNAM 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. NavasG
  • 7R. LopezD
  • 6Nathan SilvaD
  • 5R. DuarteD
  • 77A. AnguloD
  • 20S. TrigosM
  • 45P. ViteM
  • 17S. CordovaM
  • 31R. MoralesM
  • 203S. GarciaM
  • 23JuninhoF
Substitutes
  • 35P. LaraG
  • 9G. MartinezF
  • 22A. MedinaF
  • 2P. BennevendoD
  • 24T. LeoneD
  • 18V. ArteagaM
  • 199K. Carranza
  • 34A. AzuajeD
  • 30S. LopezF
Coach: Esteban Solari
CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
  • 25C. MorenoG
  • 22A. MozoD
  • 4Eduardo BauermannD
  • 2S. D. BarretoD
  • 15F. VenegasD
  • 16C. RiveraM
  • 10E. MontielM
  • 29KenedyM
  • 7R. PizarroM
  • 11O. IdrissiM
  • 23S. RondonF
Substitutes
  • 31J. EulogioG
  • 6M. IsaisD
  • 187G. AlvarezF
  • 8A. DominguezF
  • 13J. BerlangaD
  • 19I. HernandezF
  • 14C. SanchezD
  • 26A. BautistaM
  • 21N. VallejoF
Coach: Benjamin Mora

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Pumas UNAM83231112-111
10CF Pachuca8323138+511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs CF Pachuca

  • 18 July 2026Pumas UNAM 0–3 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 18 May 2026Pumas UNAM 1–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 15 May 2026CF Pachuca 1–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 25 April 2026CF Pachuca 0–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 21 November 2025CF Pachuca 3–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 20 July 2025Pumas UNAM 2–3 CF PachucaLiga MX

Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and CF Pachuca

Pumas UNAM

  • Juninho4 goals

CF Pachuca

  • S. Rondón8 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.