18 July 2026

FC Juarez vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result

Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Juarez 0-1 Puebla.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% FC Juarez, 23% draw, 20% Puebla — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Juarez at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁L. Romeroout: D. Garcia
7'
11'
⚽I. Maestroassist: A. Herrera
🔁Madsonout: J. Rodriguez
46'
46'
🔁A. Ramirezout: S. Sanabria
🔁Monchuout: J. M. Torres Ramirez I.
58'
🔁J. Aquinoout: F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin
58'
🔁O. Estupinanout: L. Dupuy
59'
63'
•Iker Moreno
64'
Iker Moreno
66'
🔁A. Organistaout: A. Leyva
69'
Ignacio Maestro Puch
Guilherme Castilho
74'
81'
🔁I. Maestroout: E. Mustre
87'
🔁K. Velascoout: O. Villa

Match stats — FC Juarez vs Puebla

65%Possession35%
13Shots13
1On target5
5Corners7
0.86xG1.22

Goals against chances

FC Juarez0 from 0.86 xGless than the chances were worth
Puebla1 from 1.22 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Juarez 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. JuradoG
  • 20J. AquinoD
  • 3J. MurilloD
  • 23H. OrtegaD
  • 4A. MayorgaD
  • 15L. RomeroM
  • 6MonchuM
  • 9MadsonM
  • 8Guilherme CastilhoM
  • 21RicardinhoM
  • 19O. EstupinanF
Substitutes
  • 27G. RuizG
  • 11J. RodriguezM
  • 7R. FulgencioM
  • 29E. AyonF
  • 17L. DupuyF
  • 10J. M. Torres Ramirez I.F
  • 33F. J. Nevarez PulgarinD
  • 2G. SepulvedaD
  • 5D. GarciaM
Coach: Pedro Caixinha
Puebla 4-2-3-1
  • 28D. GutierrezG
  • 12I. MorenoD
  • 5F. AlmadaD
  • 4J. VargasD
  • 7F. MonarrezD
  • 16A. RamirezM
  • 3A. HerreraM
  • 26K. VelascoM
  • 24A. OrganistaM
  • 11E. GomezM
  • 19I. MaestroF
Substitutes
  • 33J. RodriguezG
  • 22C. BaltazarM
  • 17R. CastilloM
  • 10M. TomasM
  • 15O. VillaD
  • 21S. SanabriaM
  • 29E. MustreF
  • 8O. F. Moreno VillegasF
  • 2A. Leyva
Coach: Alberto Espigares

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18FC Juarez8008423-190
8Puebla7412109+113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Puebla

  • 18 July 2026FC Juarez 0–1 PueblaLiga MX
  • 4 April 2026Puebla 1–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 25 October 2025FC Juarez 4–4 PueblaLiga MX
  • 29 March 2025FC Juarez 2–0 PueblaLiga MX
  • 28 September 2024Puebla 2–3 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 24 March 2024FC Juarez 4–3 PueblaLiga MX

Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Puebla

FC Juarez

  • Ó. Estupiñán3 goals

Puebla

  • E. Mustre3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.