18 July 2026

Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result

Full time2 – 3

Final score: Atletico San Luis 2-3 Cruz Azul.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Atletico San Luis, 24% draw, 50% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 15 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cruz Azul at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sergio

14'

33'

Carlos Rodríguez

⚽S. Salles-Lamonge

46'

⚽R. Llorenteassist: L. Flores

50'

56'

🔁A. Palavecinoout: N. Ibanez

56'

🔁C. Ebereout: G. Fernandez

56'

🔁O. Camposout: L. Romero

60'

•José Paradela

63'

⚽G. Fernandez (pen)

🔁L. Floresout: R. Najera

71'

Robson Bambu

75'

🔁D. Rodriguezout: M. Garcia

76'

🔁Lucas Estevesout: A. Duarte

77'

🔁E. Liraout: A. Montano

81'

⚽J. Marquezassist: L. Romero

87'

🔁J. Paradelaout: A. Garcia

🔁R. Llorenteout: S. Munoz

88'

90'

⚽J. Marquezassist: C. Rodriguez

Match stats — Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul

46%Possession54%

12Shots20

5On target10

4Corners4

1.25xG3.14

Goals against chances

Atletico San Luis2 from 1.25 xGmore than the chances were worth

Cruz Azul3 from 3.14 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico San Luis 3-4-2-1

1A. SanchezG
3Robson BambuD
31E. AguilaD
18A. CruzD
2R. TorresM
21O. MaciasM
10S. Salles-LamongeM
16Lucas EstevesM
11D. RodriguezF
22R. Llorente
20L. FloresF

Substitutes

25M. G. LajudG
19S. MunozF
8R. NajeraM
26S. PerezM
17A. DuarteF
5R. MerazM
30B. GalindoD
188L. Carrillo
14M. GarciaM

Coach: Raul Chabrand

Cruz Azul 4-2-3-1

23K. MierG
16J. MarquezD
4W. DittaD
33G. PioviD
3O. CamposD
6E. LiraM
8A. PalavecinoM
20J. ParadelaM
19C. RodriguezM
29C. RotondiM
11C. EbereF

Substitutes

1A. GudinoG
7N. IbanezF
5J. OrozcoD
55R. GonzalezM
21G. FernandezF
17A. GarciaM
18L. RomeroF
12A. MontesD
10A. MontanoM

Coach: Joel Huiqui

Liga MX table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
16	Atletico San Luis	8	1	3	4	8	15	-7	6
4	Cruz Azul	8	5	0	3	16	14	+2	15

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul

18 July 2026Atletico San Luis 2–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
7 March 2026Cruz Azul 3–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
12 August 2025Atletico San Luis 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
16 March 2025Cruz Azul 3–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
18 September 2024Atletico San Luis 3–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
11 February 2024Cruz Azul 3–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX

Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and Cruz Azul