18 July 2026

Leon vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result

Full time2 – 3

Final score: Leon 2-3 Atlas.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Leon, 27% draw, 32% Atlas — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Leon at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Duk
⚽D. Cambindo
27'
D. Cambindo
42'
46'
🔁J. Rodriguezout: M. Valenzuela
50'
⚽A. Gonzalezassist: Gustavo Ferrareis
🔁S. Santosout: J. Cortizo
55'
🔁D. Arcilaout: E. Guerra
56'
🔁I. Diazout: A. Alvarado
56'
58'
🔁A. Gonzalezout: L. Esteves
64'
🔁E. Zaldivarout: V. H. Rios De Alba
R. Echeverria
73'
73'
⚽A. Rocha (pen)
🔁R. Echeverriaout: L. Valadez
74'
⚽J. Cortizoassist: A. Alvarado
77'
🔁I. Morenoout: F. Beltran Cruz
82'
84'
M. Capasso
85'
A. Rocha
89'
🔁Dukout: J. Lozano
A. Alvarado
90+9'

Match stats — Leon vs Atlas

46%Possession54%
16Shots9
8On target7
6Corners2
1.23xG1.72

Goals against chances

Leon2 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth
Atlas3 from 1.72 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 23O. GarciaG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 3J. GuevaraD
  • 5S. VegasD
  • 26S. ReyesD
  • 29I. RodriguezM
  • 22S. SantosM
  • 20R. EcheverriaM
  • 13D. ArcilaM
  • 11I. DiazM
  • 27D. CambindoF
Substitutes
  • 1Garcia JordanG
  • 16J. CortizoM
  • 18E. GuerraM
  • 35L. ValadezM
  • 185C. Mora
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 6F. Beltran Cruz
  • 25P. BellonD
  • 19A. AlvaradoF
Coach: Javier Gandolfi
Atlas 4-2-3-1
  • 22A. SanchezG
  • 2Gustavo FerrareisD
  • 28M. CapassoD
  • 21R. SchlegelD
  • 5J. RodriguezD
  • 26A. RochaM
  • 6E. ZaldivarM
  • 11DukM
  • 58A. GonzalezM
  • 23S. HernandezM
  • 8R. MmaeeF
Substitutes
  • 181L. HernandezG
  • 16M. ValenzuelaD
  • 4A. MoraD
  • 15P. RamirezD
  • 203J. MartinF
  • 13G. AguirreD
  • 17J. LozanoD
  • 10L. EstevesM
  • 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
Coach: Diego Cocca

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Leon8413119+213
9Atlas84131214-213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leon vs Atlas

  • 18 July 2026Leon 2–3 AtlasLiga MX
  • 5 April 2026Leon 2–0 AtlasLiga MX
  • 23 October 2025Atlas 2–0 LeonLiga MX
  • 19 January 2025Atlas 1–2 LeonLiga MX
  • 24 October 2024Leon 0–0 AtlasLiga MX
  • 18 February 2024Atlas 0–1 LeonLiga MX

Leading scorers: Leon and Atlas

Leon

  • D. Arcila3 goals

Atlas

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.