Puebla
vs
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Puebla 0–1 Pumas UNAM
The model makes it 33% Puebla, 29% draw, 38% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Puebla 1.24, Pumas UNAM 1.37.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Pumas UNAM: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Puebla are 10th on 16 points from 12 games; Pumas UNAM are 9th on 16 points from 12 games — Liga MX.
- Puebla have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Club Tijuana.
- Pumas UNAM have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Atlante FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Pumas UNAM 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Puebla 2–3 Pumas UNAM.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Puebla vs Pumas UNAM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pumas UNAM at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Puebla vs Pumas UNAM
Puebla
- D0-0away to Club Tijuana17 October 2026
- D1-1Leon10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tigres UANL27 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
Pumas UNAM
- W2-1away to Atlante FC17 October 2026
- D3-3Cruz Azul12 October 2026
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
What these results say
- Puebla did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Pumas UNAM | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Puebla
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
Pumas UNAM
Chance to finish in the top four
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Pumas UNAM
- 14 February 2026Puebla 2–3 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 24 August 2025Pumas UNAM 0–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 8 March 2025Puebla 1–3 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 18 September 2024Pumas UNAM 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 11 February 2024Pumas UNAM 3–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 23 September 2023Puebla 0–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Puebla and Pumas UNAM
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho61
- R. Morales33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Puebla carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.64 for Pumas UNAM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Puebla and 1.37 for Pumas UNAM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puebla rate 0.55 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pumas UNAM rate 0.86 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puebla a 0% chance of the title and Pumas UNAM 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pumas UNAM the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Puebla against 1.37 for Pumas UNAM. Puebla's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.31 for Pumas UNAM.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Puebla at home · Pumas UNAM away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Puebla 12, Pumas UNAM 12.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Puebla
- at Club Queretaro9 Nov · Liga MXwin 19%
- vs Atletico San Luis21 Nov · Liga MXwin 41%
Pumas UNAM
- vs Club America8 Nov · Liga MXwin 41%
- vs Monterrey22 Nov · Liga MXwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.