1 August 2026, 03:00 UTC

FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez, Ciudad Juarez
Full time1 – 5

Final score: FC Juarez 1-5 Pumas UNAM.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Juarez, 26% draw, 39% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pumas UNAM at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Juarez0%Draw1%Pumas UNAM99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽Juninho (pen)
22'
⚽Juninhoassist: R. Morales
🔁J. Murilloout: Monchu
27'
40'
⚽R. Moralesassist: U. Antuna
⚽J. Rodriguezassist: J. M. Torres Ramirez I.
45+4'
48'
⚽Juninhoassist: R. Morales
🔁H. Ortegaout: Juarez Ricardo
52'
59'
U. Antuna
🔁D. Garciaout: E. Ayon
62'
🔁J. Rodriguezout: R. Fulgencio
62'
🔁O. Estupinanout: J. Carmona
62'
65'
🔁S. Cordovaout: A. Medina
65'
🔁Juninhoout: A. Carrasquilla
R. Fulgencio
74'
76'
🔁U. Antunaout: G. Martinez
76'
🔁R. Moralesout: L. Herrera
83'
⚽G. Martinezassist: A. Carrasquilla
Guilherme Castilho
89'
90'
🔁V. Arteagaout: S. Trigos

Match stats — FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM

49%Possession51%
8Shots10
3On target5
2Corners0
0.4xG2.7

Goals against chances

FC Juarez1 from 0.40 xGmore than the chances were worth
Pumas UNAM5 from 2.70 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Juarez 5-4-1
  • 1Sebastián JuradoG
  • 33Francisco NevarezD
  • 2Gilberto SepúlvedaD
  • 3Jesús MurilloD
  • 23Haret OrtegaD
  • 4Alejandro MayorgaD
  • 10Jairo TorresM
  • 5Denzell GarciaM
  • 8Guilherme CastilhoM
  • 11José Luis RodríguezM
  • 19Óscar EstupiñánF
Substitutes
  • 6MonchuM
  • 198Ricardo JuárezD
  • 201Jan CarmonaM
  • 7Raymundo FulgencioM
  • 29Ettson AyónF
  • 27Guillermo RuizG
  • 20Javier AquinoM
  • 250Brayan MolinaM
  • 183Leonardo RodríguezM
Coach: Pedro Caixinha
Pumas UNAM 4-2-3-1
  • 1Keylor NavasG
  • 7Rodrigo LopezD
  • 6Nathan SilvaD
  • 5Rubén DuarteD
  • 77Álvaro AnguloD
  • 18Victor ArteagaM
  • 45Pedro ViteM
  • 21Uriel AntunaM
  • 17Sebastián CórdovaM
  • 23JuninhoM
  • 31Robert MoralesF
Substitutes
  • 22Alan MedinaF
  • 8Adalberto CarrasquillaM
  • 14Luciano HerreraF
  • 9Guillermo MartínezF
  • 20Santiago TrigosM
  • 35Pablo LaraG
  • 34Angel AzuajeD
  • 24Antonio LeoneD
  • 2Pablo BennevendoD
Coach: Esteban Solari

Form going into FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM

FC Juarez

  • L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas25 July 2026
  • L0-1Puebla18 July 2026

Pumas UNAM

  • W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026
  • L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18FC Juarez8008423-190
11Pumas UNAM83231112-111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM

  • 1 August 2026FC Juarez 1–5 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 22 April 2026Pumas UNAM 4–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 24 September 2025FC Juarez 3–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 28 April 2025FC Juarez 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 12 April 2025Pumas UNAM 0–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 18 July 2024FC Juarez 1–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX

Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Pumas UNAM

FC Juarez

  • Ó. Estupiñán3 goals

Pumas UNAM

  • Juninho4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.