Liga MX · Apertura - 3 · 1 August 2026, 03:00 UTC

FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM

The model makes it 35% FC Juarez, 26% draw, 39% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: FC Juarez 1.41, Pumas UNAM 1.51.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Low.

Model insights

60%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM

  • 22 April 2026Pumas UNAM 4–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 24 September 2025FC Juarez 3–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 28 April 2025FC Juarez 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 12 April 2025Pumas UNAM 0–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 18 July 2024FC Juarez 1–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 14 January 2024Pumas UNAM 1–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Pumas UNAM the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC Juarez against 1.51 for Pumas UNAM. FC Juarez's attack/defence rating is 0.68/2.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.1 for Pumas UNAM.