10 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Trinidense Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Gunther Vogel, San Lorenzo
Referee: Carlos P. Benitez, Paraguay
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1-1 Sportivo Trinidense.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 26% draw, 56% Sportivo Trinidense — fair odds of 5.56, 3.85 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sportivo Trinidense at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club Sp. San Lorenzo95%Draw5%Sportivo Trinidense0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
Néstor Camacho
⚽J. Barrios (pen)
25'
J. Barrios
27'
45'
🔁Junior Samuel Gamarra Figueredoout: Nicolás Maná
45'
🔁Tomás Ezequiel Rayerout: Luis Carlos Abreu Benegas
🔁R. Amarillaout: Ángel Benítez
60'
🔁Kevin Ferreira Gonzalezout: Gastón Gerzel
60'
61'
🔁Néstor Camachoout: Clementino González
61'
🔁Cesar Benitezout: Fabrizio Baruja
68'
🔁Alan Tobias Morinigoout: Oscar Gimenez
🔁K. Fernándezout: Elias Ortiz
72'
🔁I Fretesout: Carlos Daniel Meza Montiel
72'
77'
Fabrizio Baruja
Gastón Gerzel
89'
🔁Héctor Villamayorout: Alexis Doldán
90'
90+4'
⚽Gustavo Viera
90+6'
Agustín Da Silveira Muñoa

Match stats — Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Trinidense

35%Possession65%
8Shots19
5On target5
5Corners10
1.24xG1.17

Goals against chances

Club Sp. San Lorenzo1 from 1.24 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sportivo Trinidense1 from 1.17 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2
  • 31L. FrancoG
  • 24Matias AgueroD
  • 5T. ParedesD
  • 21H. GonzalezD
  • 13Isaias FretesD
  • 22K. FerreiraM
  • 6H. VillamayorM
  • 15B. PiñataresM
  • 25K. FernándezM
  • 9J. BarriosF
  • 8R. AmarillaF
Substitutes
  • 35C. ColmánF
  • 32F. AragónM
  • 16Á. BenítezM
  • 39Lucas Andres Cohener GonzalezM
  • 4A. DoldánD
  • 26Amin Duarte Gonzalez JoseM
  • 28P. GerzelF
  • 20D. Meza MontielD
  • 27Elias OrtizM
Coach: S. Orteman
Sportivo Trinidense 4-1-4-1
  • 12V. SamudioG
  • 23C. BenítezD
  • 40A. da SilveiraD
  • 6A. CañeteD
  • 4D. MelgarejoD
  • 5N. GautoM
  • 22J. GamarraM
  • 21G. VieraM
  • 29T. RayerM
  • 31A. MorinigoM
  • 7N. CamachoF
Substitutes
  • 13Deivis Faustino Barone MoraF
  • 24F. BarujaM
  • 1M. DufourG
  • 11L. AbreuM
  • 9O. GiménezF
  • 37L. GonzalezM
  • 20C. GonzálezF
  • 28B. LeguizamonM
  • 10N. ManáF
Coach: J. Arrúa

Form going into Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Trinidense

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  • D1-1away to Club Guarani3 October 2026
  • D0-0Deportivo Recoleta28 September 2026
  • L0-3Olimpia20 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Sportivo Ameliano11 September 2026

Sportivo Trinidense

  • W3-2Sportivo Luqueno5 October 2026
  • W2-1Cerro Porteno26 September 2026
  • L0-1Club Guarani18 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Deportivo Recoleta12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sportivo Trinidense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sportivo Trinidense won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sportivo Trinidense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo140410523-184
5Sportivo Trinidense147342414+1024

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Trinidense

  • 3 August 2026Sportivo Trinidense 3–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 17 April 2026Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 19 February 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 8 October 2022Sportivo Trinidense 2–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
  • 4 July 2022Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Intermedia
  • 18 October 2021Club Sp. San Lorenzo 5–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Intermedia

Leading scorers: Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Sportivo Trinidense

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Sportivo Trinidense

GoalsAssists

  • F. Romero71
  • L. Abreu31
  • T. Rayer31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.