US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: US Ben Guerdane 2-1 Club Africain.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% US Ben Guerdane, 29% draw, 44% Club Africain — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Africain at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain
US Ben Guerdane
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif20 September 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien16 September 2026
- D3-3away to US Monastirienne12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Olympique Béja30 August 2026
Club Africain
- W1-0ES Zarzis20 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse29 August 2026
- W1-0away to ES Metlaoui23 August 2026
What these results say
- US Ben Guerdane went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- US Ben Guerdane scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- US Ben Guerdane conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain
- 10 October 2026US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Club AfricainLigue 1
- 8 March 2026US Ben Guerdane 0–1 Club AfricainLigue 1
- 28 September 2025Club Africain 2–0 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
- 26 January 2025Club Africain 0–0 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
- 31 August 2024US Ben Guerdane 2–2 Club AfricainLigue 1
- 21 April 2024US Ben Guerdane 1–1 Club AfricainCup