2 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Guillermo Laza, Buenos Aires
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Deportivo Riestra 0-1 Barracas Central.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Deportivo Riestra, 27% draw, 18% Barracas Central — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Deportivo Riestra at 55% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Riestra0%Draw5%Barracas Central95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nicolas Watson
21'
31'
Facundo Bruera
53'
Rodrigo Insúa
🔁N. Benegasout: T. Gonzalez
62'
66'
🔁J. Candiaout: G. Campi
66'
🔁N. Demartiniout: G. Maroni
🔁N. Watsonout: B. Sanchez
70'
🔁A. Alonsoout: P. Monje
70'
72'
⚽G. Maroniassist: T. Porra
76'
🔁I. Tapiaout: M. Puig
🔁N. Sansotreout: J. Goitia
85'
87'
🔁T. Porraout: C. Arce
87'
🔁F. Brueraout: J. Barbieri
90+2'
Gonzalo Maroni

Match stats — Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central

40%Possession60%
12Shots10
5On target3
5Corners3
0.67xG1.11

Goals against chances

Deportivo Riestra0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Barracas Central1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1
  • 1I. ArceG
  • 36M. BracamonteD
  • 6I. GariglioD
  • 22C. PazD
  • 2C. QuintanaD
  • 15N. SansotreD
  • 11A. DiazM
  • 8M. CelizM
  • 16N. WatsonM
  • 7A. AlonsoM
  • 9N. BenegasF
Substitutes
  • 23M. ArzamendiaG
  • 3E. TovoD
  • 27J. GoitiaD
  • 35A. StringaF
  • 5P. RamirezD
  • 21T. GonzalezF
  • 10B. SanchezM
  • 13R. GalloD
  • 24F. MinoD
Coach: Gustavo Benitez
Barracas Central 5-3-2
  • 30M. MinoG
  • 13R. BarriosD
  • 14K. JappertD
  • 15Y. RakD
  • 31N. DemartiniD
  • 6R. InsuaD
  • 8T. PorraM
  • 5D. MilocM
  • 10I. TapiaM
  • 77F. BrueraF
  • 20J. CandiaF
Substitutes
  • 1J. EspinolaG
  • 37G. CampiD
  • 33G. MaroniM
  • 19C. ArceM
  • 7J. BarbieriF
  • 2N. CapraroD
  • 79M. PuigM
  • 32F. TobioD
  • 28R. BogarinM
Coach: Damian Ayude

Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central

Deportivo Riestra

  • L1-2away to Defensa Y Justicia29 July 2026
  • W3-0Boca Juniors26 July 2026

Barracas Central

  • W1-0Aldosivi29 July 2026
  • W1-0away to River Plate25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central

  • 2 August 2026Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 February 2026Barracas Central 1–1 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 November 2025Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 December 2024Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 February 2024Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 25 March 2019Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Barracas CentralPrimera B Metropolitana
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.