Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Riestra 0-1 Barracas Central.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Deportivo Riestra, 27% draw, 18% Barracas Central — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Riestra at 55% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1I. ArceG
- 36M. BracamonteD
- 6I. GariglioD
- 22C. PazD
- 2C. QuintanaD
- 15N. SansotreD
- 11A. DiazM
- 8M. CelizM
- 16N. WatsonM
- 7A. AlonsoM
- 9N. BenegasF
- 23M. ArzamendiaG
- 3E. TovoD
- 27J. GoitiaD
- 35A. StringaF
- 5P. RamirezD
- 21T. GonzalezF
- 10B. SanchezM
- 13R. GalloD
- 24F. MinoD
- 30M. MinoG
- 13R. BarriosD
- 14K. JappertD
- 15Y. RakD
- 31N. DemartiniD
- 6R. InsuaD
- 8T. PorraM
- 5D. MilocM
- 10I. TapiaM
- 77F. BrueraF
- 20J. CandiaF
- 1J. EspinolaG
- 37G. CampiD
- 33G. MaroniM
- 19C. ArceM
- 7J. BarbieriF
- 2N. CapraroD
- 79M. PuigM
- 32F. TobioD
- 28R. BogarinM
Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central
Deportivo Riestra
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Defensa Y Justicia29 July 2026
- W3-0Boca Juniors26 July 2026
Barracas Central
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Aldosivi29 July 2026
- W1-0away to River Plate25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 12 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central
- 1 February 2026Barracas Central 1–1 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 November 2025Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 December 2024Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 February 2024Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 March 2019Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Barracas CentralPrimera B Metropolitana
The result against the call
Barracas Central won 1–0 at Deportivo Riestra. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Riestra at 55% and given a win for Barracas Central 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: G. Maroni 72' for Barracas Central. On expected goals it finished 0.67–1.11.