2 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Aldosivi vs Gimnasia La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Mar del Plata
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Aldosivi 1-2 Gimnasia La Plata.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Aldosivi, 23% draw, 57% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 5.00, 4.35 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aldosivi0%Draw3%Gimnasia La Plata97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alan Sosa
9'
22'
🔁J. Merloout: A. Colazo
40'
⚽A. Auzmendiassist: P. Silva Torrejon
Matías Godoy
43'
🔁N. Corderoout: T. Fernandez
46'
🔁M. Godoyout: N. Gaitan
46'
Federico Laurelli
48'
🔁F. Laurelliout: A. Palavecino
59'
🔁R. Gonzalezout: M. Garcia
59'
60'
Nacho Fernández
61'
🔁N. Schelottoout: B. Barros Schelotto
61'
🔁A. Auzmendiout: L. Janson
66'
⚽A. Colazoassist: A. Steimbach
71'
Pedro Silva
🔁L. Castroout: A. Chavez
74'
⚽N. Gaitan
78'
87'
🔁I. Miramonout: A. Max
87'
🔁N. Fernandezout: L. Lamella
90+2'
Mateo Seoane

Match stats — Aldosivi vs Gimnasia La Plata

50%Possession50%
18Shots11
4On target4
3Corners4
0.87xG0.91

Goals against chances

Aldosivi1 from 0.87 xGabout what the chances were worth
Gimnasia La Plata2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aldosivi 3-4-2-1
  • 23I. ChiccoG
  • 33N. ZalazarD
  • 2L. SigaliD
  • 32J. PomboD
  • 4R. GonzalezM
  • 22A. SosaM
  • 19L. CastroM
  • 17F. LaurelliM
  • 21M. GodoyF
  • 29A. VombergarF
  • 9N. CorderoF
Substitutes
  • 42L. AcostaG
  • 18A. ChavezF
  • 25N. BreitenbruchD
  • 5N. LinaresM
  • 27T. FernandezF
  • 14E. LopezD
  • 16B. DadinF
  • 10N. GaitanM
  • 11A. PalavecinoF
Coach: Israel Damonte
Gimnasia La Plata 4-2-3-1
  • 23N. InsfranG
  • 25A. SteimbachD
  • 35J. CortazzoD
  • 21E. MartinezD
  • 24P. Silva TorrejonD
  • 18M. SeoaneM
  • 10N. SchelottoM
  • 5I. MiramonM
  • 8N. FernandezM
  • 11J. MerloM
  • 29A. AuzmendiF
Substitutes
  • 15H. CastilloG
  • 16A. MaxM
  • 9M. ZalazarF
  • 7M. PanaroF
  • 31B. Barros SchelottoD
  • 26F. TorresF
  • 17L. JansonF
  • 19A. ColazoF
  • 37J. LangaD
Coach: Mariano Messera

Form going into Aldosivi vs Gimnasia La Plata

Aldosivi

  • L0-1away to Barracas Central29 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Defensa Y Justicia24 July 2026

Gimnasia La Plata

  • W1-0River Plate29 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Racing Club24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs Gimnasia La Plata

  • 2 August 2026Aldosivi 1–2 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 February 2026Gimnasia La Plata 3–1 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 August 2022Gimnasia La Plata 0–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 September 2021Aldosivi 1–3 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 10 November 2019Aldosivi 0–3 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 February 2019Aldosivi 0–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Aldosivi and Gimnasia La Plata

Aldosivi

No leading scorers listed yet.

Gimnasia La Plata

  • M. Torres8 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.