San Diego vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 1-0 FC Dallas.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% San Diego, 22% draw, 47% FC Dallas — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs FC Dallas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1CJ Dos SantosG
- 33Oscar VerhoevenD
- 97Christopher McVeyD
- 26Manu DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70Alejandro Alvarado JrM
- 6Jeppe TverskovM
- 8Onni ValakariM
- 10Anders DreyerF
- 7Marcus IngvartsenF
- 77Alex MightenF
- 20Aníbal GodoyM
- 19David VazquezM
- 27Luca BombinoD
- 9Lewis MorganF
- 18Duran FerreeG
- 32Ian MurphyD
- 15Pedro SomaM
- 3Dagur Dan ÞórhallssonD
- 14Bryan ZambléF
- 42DanielG
- 18Shaq MooreD
- 3Osaze UrhoghideD
- 25Sebastien IbeaghaD
- 32Nolan NorrisD
- 55KaickM
- 12Christian CappisM
- 21Joaquín ValienteM
- 8Patrickson DelgadoM
- 6Ran BinyaminM
- 9Petar MusaF
- 40Jonathan SiroisG
- 77Bernard KamungoF
- 10Santiago MorenoF
- 11Anderson JulioF
- 23Logan FarringtonF
- 5Lalas AbubakarD
- 14Herman JohanssonM
- 27Caleb SwannM
- 28Sam SarverF
Form going into San Diego vs FC Dallas
San Diego
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
FC Dallas
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs FC Dallas
- 26 July 2026San Diego 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2026FC Dallas 3–3 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025FC Dallas 2–3 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2025San Diego 5–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and FC Dallas
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals3 assists
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.