San Diego vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 1-0 FC Dallas.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% San Diego, 22% draw, 47% FC Dallas — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs FC Dallas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1CJ Dos SantosG
- 33Oscar VerhoevenD
- 97Christopher McVeyD
- 26Manu DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70Alejandro Alvarado JrM
- 6Jeppe TverskovM
- 8Onni ValakariM
- 10Anders DreyerF
- 7Marcus IngvartsenF
- 77Alex MightenF
- 20Aníbal GodoyM
- 19David VazquezM
- 27Luca BombinoD
- 9Lewis MorganF
- 18Duran FerreeG
- 32Ian MurphyD
- 15Pedro SomaM
- 3Dagur Dan ÞórhallssonD
- 14Bryan ZambléF
- 42DanielG
- 18Shaq MooreD
- 3Osaze UrhoghideD
- 25Sebastien IbeaghaD
- 32Nolan NorrisD
- 55KaickM
- 12Christian CappisM
- 21Joaquín ValienteM
- 8Patrickson DelgadoM
- 6Ran BinyaminM
- 9Petar MusaF
- 40Jonathan SiroisG
- 77Bernard KamungoF
- 10Santiago MorenoF
- 11Anderson JulioF
- 23Logan FarringtonF
- 5Lalas AbubakarD
- 14Herman JohanssonM
- 27Caleb SwannM
- 28Sam SarverF
Form going into San Diego vs FC Dallas
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
FC Dallas
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | San Diego | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 56 | 62 | -6 | 35 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 49 | +9 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs FC Dallas
- 15 March 2026FC Dallas 3–3 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025FC Dallas 2–3 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2025San Diego 5–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and FC Dallas
San Diego
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 56 league goals as a side.
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa225
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Diego beat FC Dallas 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Dallas at 47% and given a win for San Diego 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: A. Alvarado Jr 50' for San Diego. On expected goals it finished 1.56–0.42.