26 July 2026, 00:30 UTC

St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer prediction & result

CITYPARK, St. Louis
Full time1 – 0

Final score: St. Louis City 1-0 Colorado Rapids.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% St. Louis City, 33% draw, 14% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 1.89, 3.03 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St. Louis City at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
R. Holding
17'
🔁D. Sealyout: M. Navarro
25'
H. Ojediran
C. Durkin
45+3'
46'
🔁D. Yapiout: G. Minoungou
46'
🔁R. Cannonout: N. Cobb
55'
🔁H. Ojediranout: K. Thompson
🔁S. Jeongout: E. Lowen
58'
68'
J. Atencio
69'
🔁J. Atencioout: W. Frederick
🔁C. Durkinout: T. Ostrak
76'
🔁S. Becherout: P. Ault
76'
⚽T. Ostrakassist: T. Totland
83'
🔁J. Orozcoout: L. MacNaughton
87'
🔁M. Hartelout: M. Perez
87'
90+6'
K. Thompson

Match stats — St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids

65%Possession35%
19Shots2
3On target0
10Corners1
1.03xG0.11

Goals against chances

St. Louis City1 from 1.03 xGabout what the chances were worth
Colorado Rapids0 from 0.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Louis City 3-4-3
  • 1Roman BürkiG
  • 99Jaziel OrozcoD
  • 32Timo BaumgartlD
  • 21Dante PolvaraD
  • 6Conrad WallemM
  • 8Christopher DurkinM
  • 24Daniel EdelmanM
  • 14Tomas TotlandM
  • 77Jeong Sang-binF
  • 11Simon BecherF
  • 17Marcel HartelF
Substitutes
  • 10Eduard LöwenM
  • 7Tomáš OstrákM
  • 29Palmer AultM
  • 5Lukas MacNaughtonD
  • 28Miguel PerezM
  • 39Benjamin LundtG
  • 27Fallou FallD
  • 20Rafael SantosD
  • 59Mykhi JoynerM
Coach: Yoann Damet
Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
  • 41Nicholas Defreitas-HansenG
  • 4Reggie CannonD
  • 22Lucas HerringtonD
  • 6Rob HoldingD
  • 5Loïc WilliamsD
  • 10Paxten AaronsonM
  • 12Josh AtencioM
  • 8Hamzat OjediranM
  • 77Darren YapiF
  • 9Rafael NavarroF
  • 7Dante SealyF
Substitutes
  • 29Miguel NavarroD
  • 24Noah CobbD
  • 93Georgi MinoungouF
  • 33Kosi ThompsonD
  • 13Wayne FrederickM
  • 31Adam BeaudryG
  • 2Keegan RosenberryD
  • 16Alex HarrisF
  • 32Donavan PhillipF
Coach: Matt Wells

Form going into St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids

St. Louis City

  • W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
  • W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026

Colorado Rapids

  • W1-0San Diego23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5St. Louis City2511864235+741
7Colorado Rapids25112123332+135

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids

  • 26 July 2026St. Louis City 1–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 10 May 2026Colorado Rapids 0–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 25 May 2025Colorado Rapids 1–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 23 February 2025St. Louis City 0–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 8 July 2024Colorado Rapids 4–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 20 June 2024St. Louis City 0–3 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.