FC Anyang
vs
FC Seoul
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 40% FC Anyang, 27% draw, 33% FC Seoul — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Anyang 1.41, FC Seoul 1.27.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Anyang
- L1-2Daejeon Citizen8 August 2026
- L1-3away to Ulsan Hyundai FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Gangwon FC26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Bucheon FC 199522 July 2026
- D1-1Gwangju FC19 July 2026
FC Seoul
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors1 August 2026
- L1-3Ulsan Hyundai FC26 July 2026
- W3-1Pohang Steelers22 July 2026
- W3-1away to Bucheon FC 199519 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Anyang | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 30 |
| 1 | FC Seoul | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 17 | +18 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Anyang
- Airton3 goals
FC Seoul
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Anyang carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.51 for FC Seoul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Anyang D-W-W-L-L; FC Seoul W-W-L-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for FC Anyang and 1.27 for FC Seoul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Anyang rate 0.68 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Seoul rate 0.51 and 1.10.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Seoul, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Anyang a 0% chance of the title and FC Seoul 95.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Anyang the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC Anyang against 1.27 for FC Seoul. FC Anyang's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.1 for FC Seoul.