13 September 2026, 12:45 UTC

Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Wieczysta Kraków.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Pogon Szczecin, 28% draw, 31% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pogon Szczecin at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pogon Szczecin96%Draw4%Wieczysta Kraków0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Duje Dujmovic
45'
🔁Duje Dujmovicout: Antonio Milic
57'
🔁Christophe Lungoyiout: Villar
⚽Darko Churlinovassist: Patryk Dziczek
59'
62'
Lucas Piazón
🔁Jan Bieganskiout: Kellyn Acosta
63'
🔁Maciej Wojciechowskiout: Natan Lawa
64'
🔁Alessandro Riccioout: Hussein Ali
68'
68'
🔁Lucas Piazónout: Petar Pusic
68'
🔁Lisandro Semedoout: José Antonio de la Rosa Garrido
71'
Kamil Pestka
74'
🔁Kamil Pestkaout: Matúš Vojtko
🔁Benjamin Mendyout: Attila Szalai
84'
🔁Paul Omo Mukairuout: Musa Juwara
84'
Patryk Dziczek
85'
⚽Jordi Sánchezassist: Patryk Dziczek
90+3'

Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków

48%Possession52%
20Shots15
6On target3
4Corners5

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin 4-2-3-1
  • 77V. CojocaruG
  • 4A. RiccioD
  • 13D. KeramitsisD
  • 29L. WillenD
  • 23B. MendyD
  • 16P. DziczekM
  • 6J. BiegańskiM
  • 21D. ChurlinovM
  • 35M. WojciechowskiM
  • 18P. MukairuM
  • 22Jordi SánchezF
Substitutes
  • 3K. AcostaM
  • 15Hussein AliD
  • 30J. CzaplinskiM
  • 98M. DabrowskiG
  • 11K. GrosickiM
  • 7M. JuwaraF
  • 47N. LawaM
  • 17J. NsameF
  • 33Pascal EnguehardG
Coach: Óscar García
Wieczysta Kraków 4-2-3-1
  • 77M. KochalskiG
  • 4K. FilaD
  • 24M. WieteskaD
  • 55D. DujmovićD
  • 33K. PestkaD
  • 20M. MaigaardM
  • 12Lucas PiazónM
  • 7Lisandro SemedoM
  • 10T. ChristensenM
  • 88C. LungoyiM
  • 9E. KoulourisF
Substitutes
  • 15A. ĐermanovićD
  • 8B. LedermanM
  • 23Miki VillarM
  • 1A. MikułkoG
  • 16A. MilićD
  • 97T. MrasM
  • 70P. PušićM
  • 27M. VojtkoD
  • 13K. ZagrodzkiD
Coach: Ž. Kopić

Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków

Pogon Szczecin

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
  • D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
  • W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026

Wieczysta Kraków

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Wisla Krakow29 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Cracovia Krakow21 August 2026
  • W4-3away to Piast Gliwice15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to GKS Katowice9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Wieczysta Kraków failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Wieczysta Kraków scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Pogon Szczecin11731199+1024
16Wieczysta Kraków122281623-78

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków

Pogon Szczecin

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Sánchez91

Wieczysta Kraków

GoalsAssists

  • Lisandro Semedo40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pogon Szczecin beat Wieczysta Kraków 2–0. The model had made a win for Pogon Szczecin its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Darko Churlinov 59' for Pogon Szczecin, Jordi Sánchez 90+3' for Pogon Szczecin.

How the call on Pogon Szczecin v Wieczysta Kraków has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Wieczysta Kraków's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Pogon Szczecin win41%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Wieczysta Kraków win31%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.