Pogon Szczecin
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Wieczysta Kraków.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Pogon Szczecin, 29% draw, 27% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 1.64, Wieczysta Kraków 1.07.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogon Szczecin at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków
Line-ups
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 4A. RiccioD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 29L. WillenD
- 23B. MendyD
- 16P. DziczekM
- 6J. BiegańskiM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 22Jordi SánchezF
- 3K. AcostaM
- 15Hussein AliD
- 30J. CzaplinskiM
- 98M. DabrowskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 7M. JuwaraF
- 47N. LawaM
- 17J. NsameF
- 33Pascal EnguehardG
- 77M. KochalskiG
- 4K. FilaD
- 24M. WieteskaD
- 55D. DujmovićD
- 33K. PestkaD
- 20M. MaigaardM
- 12Lucas PiazónM
- 7Lisandro SemedoM
- 10T. ChristensenM
- 88C. LungoyiM
- 9E. KoulourisF
- 15A. ĐermanovićD
- 8B. LedermanM
- 23Miki VillarM
- 1A. MikułkoG
- 16A. MilićD
- 97T. MrasM
- 70P. PušićM
- 27M. VojtkoD
- 13K. ZagrodzkiD
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon Szczecin
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow29 August 2026
- L2-3away to Cracovia Krakow21 August 2026
- W4-3away to Piast Gliwice15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pogon Szczecin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 12 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków
- 13 September 2026Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Wieczysta KrakówEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon Szczecin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Wieczysta Kraków
- T. Christensen3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.64 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.07 for Wieczysta Kraków; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Darko Churlinov 59' (Pogon Szczecin), Jordi Sánchez 90' (Pogon Szczecin).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogon Szczecin the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin against 1.07 for Wieczysta Kraków. Pogon Szczecin's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.33 for Wieczysta Kraków.