Radomiak Radom
vs
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Radomiak Radom 0-2 Piast Gliwice.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Radomiak Radom, 30% draw, 35% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.24, Piast Gliwice 1.26.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radomiak Radom at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice
Line-ups
- 1F. MajchrowiczG
- 24Z. OuattaraD
- 3K. SzcześniakD
- 72F. KoperskiD
- 13J. GrzesikD
- 77C. DonisM
- 90Ronaldo AfonsoM
- 27R. WolskiM
- 82LuquinhasM
- 15A. TapsobaM
- 80Guilherme LuizF
- 28Romário BaróM
- 8I. CamaráM
- 26Adrián DiéguezD
- 11F. GouréF
- 99B. GradeckiG
- 23K. KarasekM
- 47S. KilianekD
- 14S. KingueD
- 18ManuF
- 75D. GrilG
- 99E. TwumasiD
- 5Juande RivasD
- 4J. CzerwińskiD
- 36J. LewickiD
- 90Ivan LimaM
- 27J. ŁabojkoM
- 17Q. BoisgardM
- 80Hugo VallejoM
- 11Leandro SancaF
- 19S. Ntamack NdimbaF
- 28F. BorowskiD
- 15L. PitanD
- 77S. MuchaM
- 12Marcel Mendes-DudzińskiG
- 18O. MaziarzM
- 98J. LokiloF
- 31O. LeśniakM
- 10A. KatsantonisF
- 47J. GrelichG
Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
- W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
- D0-0Zaglebie Lubin23 August 2026
- L0-5away to Legia Warszawa14 August 2026
Piast Gliwice
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa22 August 2026
- L3-4Wieczysta Kraków15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
| 5 | Piast Gliwice | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice
- 14 September 2026Radomiak Radom 0–2 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 20 March 2026Piast Gliwice 3–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 20 September 2025Radomiak Radom 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 4 May 2025Piast Gliwice 0–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 3 November 2024Radomiak Radom 1–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 8 March 2024Piast Gliwice 2–3 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
- R. Wolski3 goals
Piast Gliwice
- Leandro Sanca4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.24 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.26 for Piast Gliwice; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Hugo Vallejo 45' (Piast Gliwice), Jakub Labojko 67' (Piast Gliwice).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radomiak Radom the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Radomiak Radom against 1.26 for Piast Gliwice. Radomiak Radom's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.14 for Piast Gliwice.