Regular Season - 8 · 14 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Radom
Full time0 2

Final score: Radomiak Radom 0-2 Piast Gliwice.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Radomiak Radom, 30% draw, 35% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.24, Piast Gliwice 1.26.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice

52%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 10%1-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Radomiak Radom at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Radomiak Radom0%Draw1%Piast Gliwice99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Jakub Lewicki
45+1'
Hugo Vallejoassist: Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca
45'
🔁Jakub Lewickiout: filip borowski
🔁Rafał Wolskiout: Ibrahima Camará
45'
46'
Jakub Czerwiński
Filip Koperski
55'
🔁Abdoul Tapsobaout: Che Nunnely
59'
67'
Jakub Labojko (pen)
70'
🔁Jakub Labojkoout: Oskar·Lesniak
70'
🔁Ivan Limaout: Szczepan·Mucha
🔁Christos Donisout: Bi Irié Fernand Gouré
72'
🔁Lucas Lima Linharesout: kacper karasek
83'
🔁Ronaldo Lumungoout: Manu
83'
84'
🔁Quentin Boisgardout: Oliwier Maziarz
89'
🔁Samuel Ntamack Ndimbaout: Andreas Katsantonis

Match stats — Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice

47%Possession53%
23Shots14
9On target4
14Corners4

Line-ups

Radomiak Radom 4-1-4-1
  • 1F. MajchrowiczG
  • 24Z. OuattaraD
  • 3K. SzcześniakD
  • 72F. KoperskiD
  • 13J. GrzesikD
  • 77C. DonisM
  • 90Ronaldo AfonsoM
  • 27R. WolskiM
  • 82LuquinhasM
  • 15A. TapsobaM
  • 80Guilherme LuizF
Substitutes
  • 28Romário BaróM
  • 8I. CamaráM
  • 26Adrián DiéguezD
  • 11F. GouréF
  • 99B. GradeckiG
  • 23K. KarasekM
  • 47S. KilianekD
  • 14S. KingueD
  • 18ManuF
Coach: R. Grzyb
Piast Gliwice 4-4-2
  • 75D. GrilG
  • 99E. TwumasiD
  • 5Juande RivasD
  • 4J. CzerwińskiD
  • 36J. LewickiD
  • 90Ivan LimaM
  • 27J. ŁabojkoM
  • 17Q. BoisgardM
  • 80Hugo VallejoM
  • 11Leandro SancaF
  • 19S. Ntamack NdimbaF
Substitutes
  • 28F. BorowskiD
  • 15L. PitanD
  • 77S. MuchaM
  • 12Marcel Mendes-DudzińskiG
  • 18O. MaziarzM
  • 98J. LokiloF
  • 31O. LeśniakM
  • 10A. KatsantonisF
  • 47J. GrelichG
Coach: D. Myśliwiec

Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice

Radomiak Radom

  • D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
  • W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
  • D0-0Zaglebie Lubin23 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Legia Warszawa14 August 2026

Piast Gliwice

  • W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
  • D1-1Legia Warszawa22 August 2026
  • L3-4Wieczysta Kraków15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Radomiak Radom8224615-98
5Piast Gliwice84131513+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice

  • 14 September 2026Radomiak Radom 0–2 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 20 March 2026Piast Gliwice 3–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 20 September 2025Radomiak Radom 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 4 May 2025Piast Gliwice 0–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 3 November 2024Radomiak Radom 1–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 8 March 2024Piast Gliwice 2–3 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice

Radomiak Radom

  • R. Wolski3 goals

Piast Gliwice

  • Leandro Sanca4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.24 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.26 for Piast Gliwice; the game produced 0 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Hugo Vallejo 45' (Piast Gliwice), Jakub Labojko 67' (Piast Gliwice).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Radomiak Radom the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Radomiak Radom against 1.26 for Piast Gliwice. Radomiak Radom's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.14 for Piast Gliwice.