Regular Season - 8 · 13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Legia Warszawa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Legia Warszawa, 29% draw, 28% Widzew Łódź — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 1.59, Widzew Łódź 1.08.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź

53%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 10%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Legia Warszawa at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rafał Augustyniakassist: Rúben Vinagre
19'
21'
⚽Kamil Piątkowski (OG)
44'
Karol Świderski
55'
mariusz fornalczyk
🔁Mateusz Szczepaniakout: Rafal Adamski
62'
65'
🔁Fran Alvarezout: Dani Silva
65'
🔁Marcel Krajewskiout: Mateusz Żyro
🔁Michal Sevcikout: Jakub Zewlakow
73'
🔁Jan Kuchtaout: Bogdan V'Yunnik
74'
74'
🔁Karol Świderskiout: Sebastian Bergier
🔁Bartosz Kapustkaout: Damian Szymański
74'
84'
🔁Stipe Biukout: Antoni Klukowski
🔁Kamil Piątkowskiout: Arkadiusz Reca
88'
Rúben Vinagre
90+4'
90+4'
Antoni Klukowski

Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź

50%Possession50%
15Shots12
3On target2
4Corners5

Line-ups

Legia Warszawa 3-4-3
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 91K. PiątkowskiD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 5Robert DezielD
  • 22P. WszołekM
  • 53W. UrbańskiM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 19Rúben VinagreM
  • 23M. ŠevčíkF
  • 7J. KuchtaF
  • 17M. SzczepaniakF
Substitutes
  • 1I. BrkićG
  • 24Z. ArsenićD
  • 9R. AdamskiF
  • 11K. ChodynaM
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 6Henrique ArreiolM
  • 4D. SzymańskiM
  • 27Bogdan V'YunnikF
  • 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
Coach: M. Papszun
Widzew Łódź 4-1-4-1
  • 1B. DrągowskiG
  • 91M. KrajewskiD
  • 25P. WiśniewskiD
  • 3S. KapuadiD
  • 40Mario GarcíaD
  • 5G. PapanikolaouM
  • 79S. BiukM
  • 10Fran ÁlvarezM
  • 8E. KornvigM
  • 7M. FornalczykM
  • 28K. ŚwiderskiF
Substitutes
  • 4M. ŻyroD
  • 14VisusD
  • 90Ioan VermeșanF
  • 18L. SelahiM
  • 20A. KlukowskiM
  • 30V. IlićG
  • 99S. BergierF
  • 80Dani SilvaM
Coach: M. Stolarski

Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź

Legia Warszawa

  • W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
  • D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Piast Gliwice22 August 2026
  • W5-0Radomiak Radom14 August 2026

Widzew Łódź

  • D0-0Radomiak Radom5 September 2026
  • L2-3Lech Poznan30 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Slask Wroclaw22 August 2026
  • L1-2Korona Kielce15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Legia Warszawa8440167+916
11Widzew Łódź8152111108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź

  • 13 September 2026Legia Warszawa 1–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 1 May 2026Legia Warszawa 1–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 2 November 2025Widzew Łódź 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 15 May 2025Widzew Łódź 0–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 3 November 2024Legia Warszawa 2–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 12 July 2024Legia Warszawa 2–1 Widzew ŁódźFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź

Legia Warszawa

  • R. Augustyniak3 goals1 assists
  • R. Adamski3 goals
  • Ł. Zjawiński3 goals

Widzew Łódź

  • M. Fornalczyk2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.59 goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.08 for Widzew Łódź; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Rafał Augustyniak 19' (Legia Warszawa), Kamil Piątkowski 21' (Widzew Łódź).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Legia Warszawa against 1.08 for Widzew Łódź. Legia Warszawa's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.25 for Widzew Łódź.