13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda Super Liga prediction & result

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Final score: IMT Novi Beograd 0-1 FK Crvena Zvezda.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% IMT Novi Beograd, 30% draw, 29% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts IMT Novi Beograd at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IMT Novi Beograd0%Draw4%FK Crvena Zvezda96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
⚽Vasilije Kostovassist: Osman Bukari
Iván Martos
44'
56'
🔁Muhammed Cham Saracevicout: Tomas·Handel
65'
🔁Vasilije Kostovout: Kristiyan Balov
65'
🔁Mirko Ivanićout: Mahmudu Bajo
78'
🔁Bamba Diengout: Marko Arnautović
78'
🔁Osman Bukariout: Vladimir Lucic
🔁Djordje Radivojevicout: Naum Perovic
82'
🔁Julián Delmásout: Vladimir Radocaj
86'
Vladimir Radocaj
88'
🔁Stefan Šapićout: Andrej Milanović
90+2'
🔁Aleksa Mitićout: Lazar Cvijetic
90+2'

Match stats — IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

44%Possession56%
7Shots9
2On target3
5Corners2

Line-ups

IMT Novi Beograd 4-1-3-2
  • 1O. ČančarevićG
  • 2Julián DelmásD
  • 5M. SissakoD
  • 65S. ŠapićD
  • 3Iván MartosD
  • 29K. FabienM
  • 22Vasilije NovicicM
  • 14I. KebeM
  • 20D. RadivojevicM
  • 9A. MiticF
  • 19T. CojicF
Substitutes
  • 50Lazar CvijeticF
  • 12Kadir GicicG
  • 11Rafael JuninhoF
  • 8L. LukovićF
  • 27V. RadočajM
  • 15A. SedlarD
  • 18W. TiendrébéogoM
  • 28A. MilanovicD
  • 23D. AkrofiM
Coach: Z. Popović
FK Crvena Zvezda 3-2-4-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 3Y. NakayamaD
  • 45S. GudeljD
  • 32D. LuckassenD
  • 21T. ElšnikM
  • 60M. GashtarovM
  • 14O. BukariM
  • 70M. ChamM
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 4M. IvanićM
  • 9B. DiengF
Substitutes
  • 13M. VeljkovićD
  • 27M. StrikaD
  • 37V. LučićM
  • 75L. LoizouF
  • 20Tomás HändelM
  • 8K. BalovF
  • 50S. RadanovićG
  • 6M. BajoM
  • 7M. ArnautovićF
Coach: Riera

Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

IMT Novi Beograd

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to OFK Beograd7 September 2026
  • W2-0Mladost Lucani30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Radnicki 192322 August 2026
  • D0-0Radnicki NIS16 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Macva9 August 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
  • W2-1FK Partizan6 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Zemun30 August 2026
  • L1-5away to Plzen27 August 2026
  • W4-0Cukaricki23 August 2026

What these results say

  • IMT Novi Beograd failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for IMT Novi Beograd had two goals or fewer.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4IMT Novi Beograd13634159+621
1FK Crvena Zvezda131210334+2937

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

  • 15 March 2026IMT Novi Beograd 1–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 19 October 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 6–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 2 March 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 6 October 2024IMT Novi Beograd 1–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 3 April 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 2–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga

Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and FK Crvena Zvezda

IMT Novi Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • C. Keita32

FK Crvena Zvezda

GoalsAssists

  • V. Kostov42
  • A. Katai34
  • M. Abu Fani32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FK Crvena Zvezda won 1–0 at IMT Novi Beograd. The model had leaned towards a win for IMT Novi Beograd at 41% and given a win for FK Crvena Zvezda 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Vasilije Kostov 31' for FK Crvena Zvezda.

How the call on IMT Novi Beograd v FK Crvena Zvezda has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is IMT Novi Beograd's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. IMT Novi Beograd win41%▲ +9
  2. Draw30%=
  3. FK Crvena Zvezda win29%▼ −9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.