Regular Season - 9 · 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda Super Liga prediction & result

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Final score: IMT Novi Beograd 0-1 FK Crvena Zvezda.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% IMT Novi Beograd, 32% draw, 31% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.15, FK Crvena Zvezda 0.94.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

42%
Both teams to score
35%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%1-0 14%0-0 13%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts IMT Novi Beograd at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IMT Novi Beograd0%Draw4%FK Crvena Zvezda96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
⚽Vasilije Kostovassist: Osman Bukari
Iván Martos
44'
56'
🔁Muhammed Cham Saracevicout: Tomas·Handel
65'
🔁Vasilije Kostovout: Kristiyan Balov
65'
🔁Mirko Ivanićout: Mahmudu Bajo
78'
🔁Bamba Diengout: Marko Arnautović
78'
🔁Osman Bukariout: Vladimir Lucic
🔁Djordje Radivojevicout: Naum Perovic
82'
🔁Julián Delmásout: Vladimir Radocaj
86'
Vladimir Radocaj
88'
🔁Stefan Šapićout: Andrej Milanović
90+2'
🔁Aleksa Mitićout: Lazar Cvijetic
90+2'

Match stats — IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

44%Possession56%
7Shots9
2On target3
5Corners2

Line-ups

IMT Novi Beograd 4-1-3-2
  • 1O. ČančarevićG
  • 2Julián DelmásD
  • 5M. SissakoD
  • 65S. ŠapićD
  • 3Iván MartosD
  • 29K. FabienM
  • 22Vasilije NovicicM
  • 14I. KebeM
  • 20D. RadivojevicM
  • 9A. MiticF
  • 19T. CojicF
Substitutes
  • 50Lazar CvijeticF
  • 12Kadir GicicG
  • 11Rafael JuninhoF
  • 8L. LukovićF
  • 27V. RadočajM
  • 15A. SedlarD
  • 18W. TiendrébéogoM
  • 28A. MilanovicD
  • 23D. AkrofiM
Coach: Z. Popović
FK Crvena Zvezda 3-2-4-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 3Y. NakayamaD
  • 45S. GudeljD
  • 32D. LuckassenD
  • 21T. ElšnikM
  • 60M. GashtarovM
  • 14O. BukariM
  • 70M. ChamM
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 4M. IvanićM
  • 9B. DiengF
Substitutes
  • 13M. VeljkovićD
  • 27M. StrikaD
  • 37V. LučićM
  • 75L. LoizouF
  • 20Tomás HändelM
  • 8K. BalovF
  • 50S. RadanovićG
  • 6M. BajoM
  • 7M. ArnautovićF
Coach: Riera

Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

IMT Novi Beograd

  • D1-1away to OFK Beograd7 September 2026
  • W2-0Mladost Lucani30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Radnicki 192322 August 2026
  • D0-0Radnicki NIS16 August 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
  • W2-1FK Partizan6 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Zemun30 August 2026
  • W4-0Cukaricki23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4IMT Novi Beograd9423116+514
1FK Crvena Zvezda8710192+1722

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

  • 13 September 2026IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 15 March 2026IMT Novi Beograd 1–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 19 October 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 6–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 2 March 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 6 October 2024IMT Novi Beograd 1–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 3 April 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 2–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga

Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and FK Crvena Zvezda

IMT Novi Beograd

  • T. Cojic2 goals2 assists
  • C. Keita2 goals1 assists

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • V. Kostov4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.15 goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.94 for FK Crvena Zvezda; the game produced 0 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Vasilije Kostov 31' (FK Crvena Zvezda).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd against 0.94 for FK Crvena Zvezda. IMT Novi Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.24 for FK Crvena Zvezda.