GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: GKS Katowice 2-1 Wieczysta Kraków.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% GKS Katowice, 20% draw, 16% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GKS Katowice at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 87G. KobylakG
- 30A. CzerwińskiD
- 6L. KlemenzD
- 55Pau RestaD
- 23M. WasielewskiM
- 19K. ŁukasiakM
- 77M. KowalczykM
- 7M. WdowiakM
- 10M. WędrychowskiF
- 17I. ShkurinF
- 27B. NowakF
- 99A. ZreľákF
- 31S. BartlewiczM
- 8Borja GalánM
- 4A. JędrychD
- 97E. JirkaM
- 1M. KikolskiG
- 21Jakub KokosinskiF
- 15E. MarkovićM
- 22S. MilewskiM
- 77M. KochalskiG
- 15A. ĐermanovićD
- 16A. MilićD
- 55D. DujmovićD
- 4K. FilaM
- 10T. ChristensenM
- 20M. MaigaardM
- 33K. PestkaM
- 19José de la RosaM
- 12Lucas PiazónM
- 7Lisandro SemedoF
- 17K. DankowskiD
- 11N. KneževićM
- 9E. KoulourisF
- 8B. LedermanM
- 88C. LungoyiF
- 1A. MikułkoG
- 97T. MrasM
- 70P. PušićM
- 27M. VojtkoD
Form going into GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
GKS Katowice
- L0-2away to Hapoel Tel Aviv6 August 2026
- W3-1Radomiak Radom2 August 2026
- W3-1Žilina30 July 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Žilina23 July 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- L1-2Lech Poznan1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom24 July 2026
What these results say
- GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 18 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Wieczysta Kraków
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin81
- B. Nowak48
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lucas Piazón32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.