Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 3 · 9 August 2026, 15:30 UTC

GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków

Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Katowice

The model makes it 64% GKS Katowice, 20% draw, 16% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: GKS Katowice 2.22, Wieczysta Kraków 1.03.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

58%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 10%2-0 10%1-1 9%

Form going into this match

GKS Katowice

  • W3-1Radomiak Radom2 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Wisla Krakow26 July 2026

Wieczysta Kraków

  • L1-2Lech Poznan1 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Radomiak Radom24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5GKS Katowice210143+13
18Wieczysta Kraków200224-20

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Leading scorers

GKS Katowice

  • I. Shkurin1 goals1 assists
  • B. Nowak1 goals1 assists

Wieczysta Kraków

No league goals recorded yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

GKS Katowice carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.33 for Wieczysta Kraków. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): GKS Katowice L-W; Wieczysta Kraków L-L.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for GKS Katowice and 1.03 for Wieczysta Kraków. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

GKS Katowice rate 0.65 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.64 and 1.81.

That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 1.03 for Wieczysta Kraków. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.81 for Wieczysta Kraków.