GKS Katowice
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
The model makes it 64% GKS Katowice, 20% draw, 16% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: GKS Katowice 2.22, Wieczysta Kraków 1.03.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
GKS Katowice
- W3-1Radomiak Radom2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow26 July 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- L1-2Lech Poznan1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
GKS Katowice
- I. Shkurin1 goals1 assists
- B. Nowak1 goals1 assists
Wieczysta Kraków
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
GKS Katowice carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.33 for Wieczysta Kraków. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): GKS Katowice L-W; Wieczysta Kraków L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for GKS Katowice and 1.03 for Wieczysta Kraków. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GKS Katowice rate 0.65 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.64 and 1.81.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 1.03 for Wieczysta Kraków. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.81 for Wieczysta Kraków.