Sochaux
vs
Saint Etienne
The model makes it 61% Sochaux, 21% draw, 18% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Sochaux 2.10, Saint Etienne 1.05.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Sochaux vs Saint Etienne
- 28 January 2023Saint Etienne 2–3 SochauxLigue 2
- 10 October 2022Sochaux 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 11 February 2021Sochaux 1–0 Saint EtienneCoupe de France
- 23 March 2014Saint Etienne 3–1 SochauxLigue 1
- 2 November 2013Sochaux 0–0 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- 2 February 2013Sochaux 1–2 Saint EtienneLigue 1
The two sides
Sochaux carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.42 for Saint Etienne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Sochaux and 1.05 for Saint Etienne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sochaux rate 0.80 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Saint Etienne rate 0.58 and 1.39.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sochaux the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Sochaux against 1.05 for Saint Etienne. Sochaux's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.39 for Saint Etienne.