FK Crvena Zvezda
vs
Novi Pazar
Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: FK Crvena Zvezda 2-0 Novi Pazar.
Before kick-off the model made it 79% FK Crvena Zvezda, 13% draw, 8% Novi Pazar — fair odds of 1.27, 7.69 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (8%).
Expected goals: FK Crvena Zvezda 3.17, Novi Pazar 0.99.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W3-1Vojvodina26 July 2026
- W5-0Macva17 July 2026
Novi Pazar
- L1-4OFK Beograd1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Mladost Lucani26 July 2026
- W1-0Radnicki 192318 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full tables
Leading scorers
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov3 goals1 assists
- Bruno Duarte1 goals3 assists
- A. Katai1 goals2 assists
Novi Pazar
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.17 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda against 0.99 for Novi Pazar. FK Crvena Zvezda's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.12 for Novi Pazar.