Regular Season - 16 · 28 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki I Liga prediction

Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej

Our model says: Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

The model makes it 40% Podbeskidzie, 29% draw, 31% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Podbeskidzie 1.33, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.13.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Podbeskidzie's rating is built from 14 Polish I Liga matches and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Podbeskidzie are 15th on 15 points from 14 games; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are 7th on 21 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Podbeskidzie have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Arka Gdynia.
  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Pogoń Siedlce.
  • Last 2 meetings: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 November 2024, ended Podbeskidzie 0–2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.

More Polish I Liga predictions

All Polish I Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

50%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Podbeskidzie win Draw Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Podbeskidzie first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Podbeskidzie at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Podbeskidzie

I Liga

  • L1-3away to Arka Gdynia7 November 2026
  • D1-1Warta Poznań31 October 2026
  • W2-1Stal Rzeszów25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to ŁKS Łódź18 October 2026
  • W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

I Liga

  • L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce8 November 2026
  • L0-1Stal Mielec30 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Ruch Chorzów25 October 2026
  • L0-1Polonia Warszawa17 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Podbeskidzie scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Podbeskidzie conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Podbeskidzie142931720-315
7Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki146352014+621

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Podbeskidzie

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today

Win 23%
Draw 32%
Defeat 38%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Chance to finish in the top two · 8% today

Win 11%
Draw 7%
Defeat 5%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

  • 24 November 2024Podbeskidzie 0–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiII Liga - East
  • 28 July 2024Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–1 PodbeskidzieII Liga - East

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (7th, with Podbeskidzie 15th), while our numbers lean to Podbeskidzie. Podbeskidzie rate 0.49 in attack and 1.80 in defence, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0.52 and 1.67 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Podbeskidzie a 0.2% chance of the title and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Podbeskidzie Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
1.8 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.67
1.33 Model expected goals (this match) 1.13

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Podbeskidzie the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Podbeskidzie against 1.13 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Podbeskidzie's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.67 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.

Podbeskidzie carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.27 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Podbeskidzie to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Podbeskidzie to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Podbeskidzie's ratings take away 2 points and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Podbeskidzie's ratings41%−2
  5. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's ratings40%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

PodbeskidziePogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
14Matches14
2W 9D 3LRecord6W 3D 5L
17 1.2 per gameGoals scored20 1.4 per game
20 1.4 per gameGoals conceded14 1.0 per game
2 of 14Clean sheets6 of 14
3 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
28 2.0 per gameYellow cards26 1.9 per game
1Red cards1

Podbeskidzie at home · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away

6Played7
2W 4D 0LRecord3W 1D 3L
8–6Goals for – against13–9
1 of 6Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Podbeskidzie 14, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 14.

Podbeskidzie scored 122327
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki conceded 124213

Podbeskidzie score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have let in 3 there.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scored 245244
Podbeskidzie conceded 343316

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Podbeskidzie have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Podbeskidzie

  • at Polonia Warszawa6 Dec · I Ligawin 20%
  • vs Miedz Legnica12 Dec · I Ligawin 35%
  • vs Stal Mielec6 Feb · I Ligawin 46%
  • at Lechia Gdansk13 Feb · I Ligawin 23%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

  • vs Odra Opole5 Dec · I Ligawin 51%
  • vs Lechia Gdansk12 Dec · I Ligawin 41%
  • at Puszcza Niepołomice6 Feb · I Ligawin 29%
  • vs Miedz Legnica13 Feb · I Ligawin 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.