Charleroi
vs
SK Beveren
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Charleroi 2–0 SK Beveren
The model makes it 65% Charleroi, 20% draw, 15% SK Beveren — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Charleroi 2.56, SK Beveren 0.99.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Charleroi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Charleroi's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and SK Beveren's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.
Key facts
- Charleroi are 4th on 27 points from 11 games; SK Beveren are 15th on 10 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Charleroi have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to KVC Westerlo.
- SK Beveren have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Standard Liege.
- Last 6 meetings: Charleroi 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 July 2025, ended Charleroi 4–1 SK Beveren.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charleroi vs SK Beveren
Has the model earned this number?
Charleroi at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Charleroi vs SK Beveren
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League
- W5-1away to KVC Westerlo7 November 2026
- W5-2RAAL La Louvière1 November 2026
- L0-3away to Antwerp24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Standard Liege11 October 2026
- W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026
SK Beveren
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-3away to Standard Liege6 November 2026
- L1-2Union St. Gilloise31 October 2026
- D4-4away to KVC Westerlo24 October 2026
- L1-3Lommel United9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026
What these results say
- Charleroi won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SK Beveren did not win any of these 5 matches.
- SK Beveren conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SK Beveren had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 15 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Charleroi
Chance to finish in the top four · 64% today
SK Beveren
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 24% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Charleroi vs SK Beveren
- 8 July 2025Charleroi 4–1 SK BeverenFriendlies Clubs
- 20 February 2021SK Beveren 1–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 2 December 2020Charleroi 0–2 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
- 30 November 2019Charleroi 2–0 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
- 31 August 2019SK Beveren 0–4 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 26 January 2019Charleroi 2–2 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Charleroi and SK Beveren
Charleroi
GoalsAssists
- A. Scheidler62
- F. Situmona Mbemba53
SK Beveren
GoalsAssists
- C. Lokesa50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charleroi a 1.8% chance of the title and SK Beveren 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Charleroi against 0.99 for SK Beveren. Charleroi's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.48 for SK Beveren.
How the model reaches 65% for Charleroi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Charleroi to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Charleroi's ratings add 10 points and SK Beveren's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Charleroi's ratings54%+10
- SK Beveren's ratings65%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Charleroi at home · SK Beveren away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CharleroiSK Beveren
Charleroi are 4th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 4th so far); SK Beveren are 15th after 11 (between 8th and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Charleroi 11, SK Beveren 11.
SK Beveren score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Charleroi have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Charleroi
- at Anderlecht13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Genk19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 46%
- at Club Brugge KV26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 17%
- vs Gent17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 37%
SK Beveren
- vs Cercle Brugge12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs KV Mechelen19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at RAAL La Louvière26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
- vs Club Brugge KV15 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.