24 August 2026, 23:00 UTC

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Botafogo 2-3 Atletico Paranaense.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Botafogo, 18% draw, 63% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 5.26, 5.56 and 1.59.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Paranaense at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botafogo0%Draw1%Atletico Paranaense99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Joao Cruz
13'
⚽K. Viverosassist: Dantas
Kauan Toledo
35'
🔁Kauan Toledoout: Junior Santos
46'
46'
🔁Luiz Gustavoout: J. Portilla
46'
🔁Leozinhoout: K. A. Calderon Vargas
61'
🔁Joao Cruzout: Dudu Kogitzki
🔁Allanout: Huguinho
63'
🔁C. Medinaout: K. Barria
63'
Edenilson
68'
🔁Edenilsonout: S. Rodriguez
72'
77'
Dantas
78'
⚽K. Viverosassist: K. A. Calderon Vargas
🔁A. Montoroout: Matheus Martins
80'
85'
🔁K. Viverosout: Renan Peixoto
⚽S. Rodriguez
85'
⚽S. Rodriguezassist: Danilo Pereira
90'

Match stats — Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense

56%Possession44%
32Shots7
8On target6
13Corners2
2.75xG0.83

Goals against chances

Botafogo2 from 2.75 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico Paranaense3 from 0.83 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Botafogo 4-2-3-1
  • 12Gabriel BatistaG
  • 2VitinhoD
  • 5N. FerraresiD
  • 34G. JustinoD
  • 13Alex TellesD
  • 6C. MedinaM
  • 25AllanM
  • 88EdenilsonM
  • 10A. MontoroM
  • 59Kauan ToledoM
  • 9Danilo PereiraF
Substitutes
  • 32RhyanG
  • 62CleberG
  • 4M. PonteD
  • 21MarcalD
  • 42Kadu SantosD
  • 75HuguinhoM
  • 23S. RodriguezM
  • 91D. AndradeM
  • 7Junior SantosF
Coach: Franclim Carvalho
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
  • 23SantosG
  • 25DantasD
  • 33F. AguirreD
  • 4Arthur DiasD
  • 29G. BenavidezM
  • 16JadsonM
  • 14Luiz GustavoM
  • 7S. MendozaM
  • 21LeozinhoF
  • 8Joao CruzF
  • 9K. ViverosF
Substitutes
  • 1MycaelG
  • 3LeoD
  • 22C. TeranD
  • 2Gilberto JuniorD
  • 27J. PortillaM
  • 47ChiquetiM
  • 5FelipinhoD
  • 10B. ZapelliM
  • 53Dudu KogitzkiM
Coach: Joao Correia

Form going into Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense

Botafogo

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Vitoria16 August 2026
  • D1-1Fluminense9 August 2026
  • W3-2Gremio29 July 2026
  • W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
  • D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026

Atletico Paranaense

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Santos9 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
  • W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Botafogo had two goals or fewer.
  • Atletico Paranaense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Paranaense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Botafogo34119144653-742
5Atletico Paranaense34159105143+854

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense

  • 29 March 2026Atletico Paranaense 4–1 BotafogoSerie A
  • 5 October 2024Atletico Paranaense 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
  • 19 June 2024Botafogo 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 22 October 2023Botafogo 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 3 June 2023Atletico Paranaense 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
  • 1 June 2023Botafogo 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil

The full Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense record →

Leading scorers: Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense

Botafogo

GoalsAssists

  • Danilo Santos102

Atletico Paranaense

GoalsAssists

  • K. Viveros213

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Paranaense won 3–2 at Botafogo. The model had made a win for Atletico Paranaense its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Joao Cruz 11' for Atletico Paranaense, K. Viveros 13' for Atletico Paranaense, K. Viveros 78' for Atletico Paranaense, S. Rodriguez 85' for Botafogo, S. Rodriguez 90' for Botafogo. On expected goals it finished 2.75–0.83.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.