Botafogo
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 29% Botafogo, 21% draw, 50% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 3.45, 4.76 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.63, Atletico Paranaense 2.17.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Botafogo
- D1-1Fluminense9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
- W2-1Santos16 July 2026
- L1-2away to Bahia30 May 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- W2-0away to Santos9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
- W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
- W1-0Mirassol30 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros12 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Botafogo carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.89 for Atletico Paranaense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Botafogo L-W-D-W-D; Atletico Paranaense W-W-W-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Botafogo and 2.17 for Atletico Paranaense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botafogo rate 0.88 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Paranaense rate 1.06 and 0.98.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Botafogo a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Paranaense 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Botafogo against 2.17 for Atletico Paranaense. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.98 for Atletico Paranaense.