30 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Pisa vs Catanzaro Serie B prediction & result

Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Pisa 2-1 Catanzaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Pisa, 28% draw, 25% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pisa at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pisa97%Draw3%Catanzaro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
🔁M. D'Alessandroout: M. Dorval
22'
⚽P. Iemmelloassist: A. Candela
⚽S. Canestrelliassist: M. Tramoni
28'
⚽G. Leoneassist: O. Correia
30'
Simone Zanon
39'
46'
🔁A. Candelaout: F. Tchaouna
🔁S. Zanonout: D. Denoon
65'
🔁M. Lerisout: G. Piccinini
65'
68'
🔁M. Ruggeroout: R. Frosinini
71'
•Nicola Mosti
🔁R. Bozhinovout: A. Caracciolo
72'
🔁G. Leoneout: I. Vural
79'
🔁M. Tramoniout: E. Rao
79'
79'
🔁N. Mostiout: F. Di Francesco
79'
🔁G. Alesiout: E. Pecorino
Arturo Calabresi
80'
Isak Vural
84'
87'
Jacopo Petriccione
90+3'
Matias Antonini

Match stats — Pisa vs Catanzaro

45%Possession55%
19Shots15
9On target7
6Corners8
2.04xG1.11

Goals against chances

Pisa2 from 2.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Catanzaro1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pisa 3-4-2-1
  • 98A. ConfenteG
  • 33A. CalabresiD
  • 5S. CanestrelliD
  • 2R. BozhinovD
  • 72S. ZanonM
  • 55G. LeoneM
  • 29O. CorreiaM
  • 3S. AngoriM
  • 7M. LerisF
  • 10M. TramoniF
  • 37A. PetagnaF
Substitutes
  • 22L. LoriaG
  • 26F. CoppolaD
  • 19T. EstevesD
  • 44D. DenoonD
  • 13A. PrimassoD
  • 4A. CaraccioloD
  • 21I. VuralM
  • 14F. LoyolaD
  • 18N. BonfantiF
Coach: Paolo Bianco
Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 24M. RuggeroD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 26B. VerrengiaD
  • 27A. CandelaM
  • 10J. PetriccioneM
  • 98N. MostiM
  • 77M. D'AlessandroM
  • 30G. AlesiF
  • 9P. IemmelloF
  • 19N. KoffiF
Substitutes
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 3M. ImperialeD
  • 6N. Postiglione
  • 93M. DorvalD
  • 14S. GiovaneM
  • 62R. FrosininiD
  • 18A. GarnicaF
  • 29F. Di FrancescoF
  • 7N. BusoF
Coach: Giorgio Gorgone

Form going into Pisa vs Catanzaro

Pisa

  • L0-1Padova23 August 2026

Catanzaro

  • L2-3away to Vicenza Virtus21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Pisa52128807
19Catanzaro510459-43

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pisa vs Catanzaro

  • 19 January 2025Catanzaro 0–0 PisaSerie B
  • 30 October 2024Pisa 0–0 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 26 April 2024Pisa 2–2 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 9 December 2023Catanzaro 2–0 PisaSerie B

Leading scorers: Pisa and Catanzaro

Pisa

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Catanzaro

  • P. Iemmello2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.