30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Mantova vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Mantova 3-1 Empoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Mantova, 29% draw, 32% Empoli — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mantova at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mantova96%Draw4%Empoli0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Gerard Yepes
Alessio Castellini
42'
49'
Karim Zedadka
Francesco Bardi
51'
51'
⚽E. Saporitiassist: M. Egan
🔁E. Gliozziout: V. Vlahovic
55'
55'
🔁K. Zedadkaout: L. Belardinelli
🔁L. Ignacchitiout: R. Kouda
56'
🔁R. Ilieout: I. Cajazzo
56'
57'
Marco Curto
⚽F. Ruoccoassist: A. Castellini
58'
⚽V. Vlahovicassist: S. Cella
61'
72'
🔁G. Yepesout: L. Deli
72'
🔁F. Di Stefanoout: B. Popov
74'
Luca Belardinelli
🔁F. Ruoccoout: J. Longonda
78'
🔁B. Tomasevicout: E. Kospo
83'
86'
Lapo Deli
86'
🔁N. Corradoout: R. Berizzi
86'
🔁E. Saporitiout: A. Orlandi
90+3'
Luca Magnino
⚽F. Benaissa-Yahiaassist: V. Vlahovic
90'

Match stats — Mantova vs Empoli

46%Possession54%
16Shots6
9On target2
3Corners6
1.28xG0.46

Goals against chances

Mantova3 from 1.28 xGmore than the chances were worth
Empoli1 from 0.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomasevicD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 41J. SilvaM
  • 21S. TrimboliM
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 8R. IlieF
  • 19F. RuoccoF
  • 9E. GliozziF
Substitutes
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 12M. GaspariniG
  • 75E. KospoD
  • 6J. LongondaM
  • 10D. WieserM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 20F. PaolettiM
  • 18S. KeitaM
  • 71F. ChinettiF
Coach: Francesco Modesto
Empoli 3-4-2-1
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 8L. MagninoD
  • 25M. CurtoD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 35M. EganM
  • 21G. YepesM
  • 98K. ZedadkaM
  • 91N. CorradoM
  • 10E. SaporitiF
  • 20F. Di StefanoF
  • 11S. ShpendiF
Substitutes
  • 1S. PerisanG
  • 13E. FilippisG
  • 28G. IndragoliD
  • 29L. TostoD
  • 40R. BerizziD
  • 6S. RomagnoliD
  • 57L. BelardinelliM
  • 45A. OrlandiM
  • 38M. HuqiM
Coach: Guido Pagliuca

Form going into Mantova vs Empoli

Mantova

  • W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026

Empoli

  • W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Mantova5320105+511
13Empoli520346-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mantova vs Empoli

  • 14 March 2026Empoli 2–2 MantovaSerie B
  • 21 December 2025Mantova 0–1 EmpoliSerie B

Leading scorers: Mantova and Empoli

Mantova

  • F. Ruocco4 goals
  • V. Vlahović2 goals1 assist

Empoli

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.