30 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Benevento vs Sudtirol Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Benevento 1-1 Sudtirol.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Benevento, 31% draw, 33% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Benevento at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benevento0%Draw4%Sudtirol96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

55'
Silvio Merkaj
59'
🔁V. Lopesout: R. Burnete
🔁L. Cherubiniout: D. Okereke
66'
69'
⚽S. Merkajassist: A. Vasic
71'
🔁A. Vasicout: S. Davi
🔁P. Beruattoout: E. Pierozzi
74'
🔁A. Priscoout: A. Siatounis
74'
Marco Tumminello
79'
🔁M. Tumminelloout: G. Mignani
80'
🔁D. Lamestaout: E. Schimmenti
80'
86'
🔁F. Rispoliout: F. Tait
86'
🔁S. Merkajout: A. Okoro
86'
🔁B. Bjarkasonout: E. Schroot
⚽F. Salvemini (pen)
90'

Match stats — Benevento vs Sudtirol

51%Possession49%
24Shots9
5On target2
11Corners1
2.23xG0.56

Goals against chances

Benevento1 from 2.23 xGless than the chances were worth
Sudtirol1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benevento 4-1-3-2
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 17L. SernicolaD
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 20P. BeruattoD
  • 4A. PriscoM
  • 11D. LamestaM
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 10L. CherubiniM
  • 9F. SalveminiF
  • 93M. TumminelloF
Substitutes
  • 96A. SyllaG
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 5L. CaldirolaD
  • 77E. PierozziD
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 6A. SiatounisM
  • 38A. TaliaM
  • 28C. KouanM
  • 29D. OkerekeF
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores
Sudtirol 5-4-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 79S. MolinaD
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 3D. VeroliD
  • 20B. BjarkasonD
  • 11V. LopesM
  • 10F. RispoliM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 14A. VasicM
  • 33S. MerkajF
Substitutes
  • 12R. VadjunecG
  • 32T. LauretiG
  • 23F. DaviD
  • 24S. DaviD
  • 39M. IulianoD
  • 21F. TaitM
  • 46D. BrikM
  • 26M. R. FrigerioM
  • 90A. OkoroF
Coach: Fabrizio Castori

Form going into Benevento vs Sudtirol

Benevento

  • L1-2Modena22 August 2026

Sudtirol

  • W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Benevento521265+17
2Sudtirol532093+611

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benevento vs Sudtirol

  • 1 March 2023Benevento 0–2 SudtirolSerie B
  • 9 October 2022Sudtirol 1–1 BeneventoSerie B

Leading scorers: Benevento and Sudtirol

Benevento

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Sudtirol

  • K. Mixtur2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.