30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Arezzo vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result

Citta di Arezzo, Arezzo
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Arezzo 2-3 Palermo.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Arezzo, 28% draw, 29% Palermo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arezzo at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arezzo5%Draw92%Palermo3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽D. Johnsenassist: Hernani
44'
Gabriel Strefezza
55'
⚽F. Ranocchiaassist: D. Johnsen
59'
🔁G. Strefezzaout: E. Gyasi
59'
🔁D. Johnsenout: D. Vavassori
⚽P. Cianciassist: C. Tavernelli
60'
66'
🔁N. Pierozziout: T. Cassandro
66'
🔁Hernaniout: N. Estevez
69'
Nahuel Estévez
🔁A. Arenaout: E. Pattarello
71'
⚽C. Tavernelliassist: P. Cianci
74'
🔁P. Cianciout: S. M. Eklu
76'
🔁M. Salaout: A. Cerri
77'
82'
🔁J. Pohjanpaloout: A. Gabrielloni
Artur Ioniță
85'
🔁G. Iaccarinoout: M. Viviani
87'
🔁C. Tavernelliout: M. Varela Djamanca
87'
90'
⚽T. Augello

Match stats — Arezzo vs Palermo

43%Possession57%
15Shots17
5On target7
9Corners4
1.18xG2.01

Goals against chances

Arezzo2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth
Palermo3 from 2.01 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arezzo 4-4-2
  • 14A. NunzianteG
  • 6A. RenziD
  • 13M. GilliD
  • 5J. IllanesD
  • 37S. RighettiD
  • 30A. ArenaM
  • 78G. IaccarinoM
  • 16M. SalaM
  • 21C. TavernelliM
  • 71P. CianciF
  • 17A. IonitaF
Substitutes
  • 90A. SeculinG
  • 22F. SerbanG
  • 4M. CoppolaroD
  • 32A. CagnanoD
  • 2M. MenaD
  • 23M. VivianiM
  • 8S. M. EkluM
  • 24L. ChiericoM
  • 7K. Leone
Coach: Cristian Bucchi
Palermo 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. PerinG
  • 27N. PierozziD
  • 13M. BaniD
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 3T. AugelloD
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
  • 8J. SegreM
  • 7G. StrefezzaM
  • 23HernaniM
  • 17D. JohnsenM
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Substitutes
  • 12M. NespolaG
  • 14M. FortinG
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 29P. PedaD
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 93F. BarbaD
  • 33A. BozzolanD
  • 24N. EstevezM
  • 6C. GomesM
Coach: Filippo Inzaghi

Form going into Arezzo vs Palermo

Arezzo

  • W2-1away to Avellino22 August 2026

Palermo

  • W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Arezzo5203613-76
1Palermo5410105+513

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Arezzo and Palermo

Arezzo

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Palermo

  • D. Johnsen3 goals4 assists
  • D. Vavassori2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.