Piast Gliwice
vs
Widzew Łódź
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Piast Gliwice 1–0 Widzew Łódź
The model makes it 41% Piast Gliwice, 29% draw, 30% Widzew Łódź — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.57, Widzew Łódź 1.17.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 41% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
Piast Gliwice
- L1-2Pogon Szczecin20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa22 August 2026
Widzew Łódź
- D2-2Wieczysta Kraków18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa13 September 2026
- D0-0Radomiak Radom5 September 2026
- L2-3Lech Poznan30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Slask Wroclaw22 August 2026
What these results say
- Piast Gliwice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
- 23 May 2026Widzew Łódź 2–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 28 November 2025Piast Gliwice 0–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 10 July 2025Widzew Łódź 1–0 Piast GliwiceFriendlies Clubs
- 28 March 2025Piast Gliwice 0–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 21 September 2024Widzew Łódź 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 7 April 2024Widzew Łódź 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź
Piast Gliwice
- Leandro Sanca4 goals1 assists
- Hugo Vallejo3 goals
Widzew Łódź
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Piast Gliwice carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.6 for Widzew Łódź. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.17 for Widzew Łódź. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Piast Gliwice rate 0.82 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Widzew Łódź rate 0.69 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Piast Gliwice a 0.7% chance of the title and Widzew Łódź 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Piast Gliwice the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Piast Gliwice against 1.17 for Widzew Łódź. Piast Gliwice's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.16 for Widzew Łódź.