Pogon Szczecin
vs
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Korona Kielce
The model makes it 42% Pogon Szczecin, 31% draw, 27% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 1.41, Korona Kielce 0.92.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogon Szczecin at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
Pogon Szczecin
- W2-1away to Piast Gliwice20 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
Korona Kielce
- W3-2Raków Częstochowa19 September 2026
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
What these results say
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
- 16 March 2026Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 13 September 2025Korona Kielce 1–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 9 December 2024Korona Kielce 0–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 20 July 2024Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 17 March 2024Korona Kielce 2–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 16 September 2023Pogon Szczecin 3–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce
Pogon Szczecin
- Jordi Sánchez8 goals1 assists
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński6 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pogon Szczecin carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.62 for Korona Kielce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.92 for Korona Kielce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogon Szczecin rate 0.76 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Korona Kielce rate 0.70 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pogon Szczecin a 5.2% chance of the title and Korona Kielce 1.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogon Szczecin the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin against 0.92 for Korona Kielce. Pogon Szczecin's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.12 for Korona Kielce.