Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Korona Kielce.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Pogon Szczecin, 30% draw, 25% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pogon Szczecin at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 4A. RiccioD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 23B. MendyD
- 16P. DziczekM
- 6J. BiegańskiM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 22Jordi SánchezF
- 3K. AcostaM
- 10F. ČuićF
- 30J. CzaplinskiM
- 98M. DabrowskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 47N. LawaM
- 17J. NsameF
- 75A. OssowskiD
- 29L. WillenD
- 1X. DziekońskiG
- 71W. DługoszD
- 23S. RubežićD
- 2A. MosórD
- 6M. PięczekD
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 30C. MenaM
- 32O. LingrM
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 14M. StępińskiF
- 8M. RemacleM
- 10NonoM
- 11K. MatuszewskiD
- 87R. MamlaG
- 86Simon GustafsonM
- 22M. FaßbenderF
- 7D. BłanikM
- 67N. BarczakD
- 99Daniel BakF
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
Pogon Szczecin
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Piast Gliwice20 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
Korona Kielce
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Raków Częstochowa19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
- D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
What these results say
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
- 16 March 2026Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 13 September 2025Korona Kielce 1–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 9 December 2024Korona Kielce 0–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 20 July 2024Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 17 March 2024Korona Kielce 2–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin beat Korona Kielce 2–0. The model had made a win for Pogon Szczecin its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Maciej Wojciechowski 45+1' for Pogon Szczecin, Paul Omo Mukairu 86' for Pogon Szczecin. On expected goals it finished 0.96–0.86.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pogon Szczecin a 36.3% chance to finish in the top four: 41.0% after a win, 32.3% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.0%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
For Korona Kielce the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.5% going in: 14.8% after a win, 10.0% after a draw, 8.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.7%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Pogon Szczecin v Korona Kielce has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 30% / 25%: the biggest move is Pogon Szczecin's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Pogon Szczecin win45%▲ +3
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Korona Kielce win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.